Fitch Confirms Bulgaria’s “BBB+” Rating, Sees Stable Outlook Despite Political Risks

Fitch Ratings has confirmed Bulgaria’s long-term sovereign credit rating in foreign currency at “BBB+” and maintained a stable outlook, signaling continued confidence in the country’s economic fundamentals.

According to the agency, the assessment is underpinned by Bulgaria’s strong fiscal and external positions, as well as a relatively consistent policy framework. Membership in the European Union and the eurozone is highlighted as a key anchor for stability. At the same time, Fitch points out that repeated elections and fragile coalition governments in recent years have slowed the pace of reforms. The agency also notes that, based on current economic growth trends, income per capita is likely to remain below that of countries with comparable ratings.

The stable outlook reflects expectations that ongoing domestic political uncertainty, along with external geopolitical risks, will not significantly disrupt economic expansion or lead to serious imbalances. Despite a widening current account deficit, Bulgaria’s external indicators are still viewed as a major strength in the overall rating profile.

Fitch outlines several potential risks that could put downward pressure on the rating. These include the emergence of macroeconomic imbalances, weaker economic growth linked to political instability, or difficulties in advancing reforms. A sustained rise in government debt relative to GDP, whether due to looser fiscal policy or underperformance of the economy, is also cited as a negative factor.

On the other hand, an upgrade would depend on tangible improvements in political stability and institutional effectiveness, which could accelerate reform efforts and help align Bulgaria more closely with higher-rated economies. Stronger growth, reduced imbalances, and better utilization of EU funding are also identified as conditions that could support a future positive revision.