Serbia Caps Fuel Prices and Halts Exports, Impacting Bulgaria and the Region

Serbia has implemented measures to limit fuel prices and temporarily halt exports of petroleum products, a move affecting neighboring countries, including Bulgaria. Despite these restrictions, there are currently no shortages or long queues at Serbian gas stations, though citizens remain concerned about rising prices amid the global oil market crisis triggered by the ongoing war in Iran.

Belgrade residents, recalling the hyperinflation of the 1990s, express caution but do not anticipate actual fuel shortages. The conflict in the Middle East has pushed oil prices above USD 100 per barrel as of March 9, the first time this level has been reached since 2022 when markets reacted to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

President Aleksandar Vucic reassured citizens that Serbia has sufficient oil and petroleum reserves to cover approximately 90 days of domestic demand. The country began bolstering its reserves after the Petroleum Industry of Serbia (NIS) was placed on the US sanctions list due to its predominantly Russian ownership. When the Pančevo refinery, Serbia’s only operational refinery, halted production under these sanctions, the country increased imports of finished fuels, mainly from Hungary.

To protect domestic supply amid rising global prices, the Serbian government introduced a temporary ban on the export of petroleum products, impacting regional buyers, including Bosnia and Herzegovina and Bulgaria, which received the largest shares of gasoline and Eurodiesel exports in 2025. The measure is set to last until March 19 and aims to prevent shortages and excessive domestic price increases, according to Minister of Mining and Energy Dubravka Džedović-Handanović.

Domestic fuel prices have already risen roughly 4 percent compared to the previous month. As of March 6, BMB 95 gasoline costs 184 dinars (1.56 euros) per liter, while Eurodiesel is priced at 203 dinars (1.73 euros). The Ministry of Internal and Foreign Trade sets maximum fuel prices weekly, returning costs close to levels observed in January 2025, when US sanctions on NIS began. NIS reported that fuel sales are proceeding normally, despite increasing global risks.

Industry representatives warn that continued price controls amid rising international costs could harm oil companies. Tomislav Micovic of the Association of Petroleum Companies in Serbia noted that selling fuel below purchase and operational costs could lead to shortages at gas stations. Reducing state excise taxes could partially offset global price pressures, as taxes, fees, and VAT account for over half of the retail fuel price.

Energy expert Dragan Vlaisavljevic emphasized that the export ban is critical to preserving state reserves, particularly as the continuation of hostilities in the Middle East makes replenishment uncertain. However, he cautioned that prolonged price controls could negatively impact oil companies’ commercial margins and potentially force gas station closures.

Serbia’s current situation reflects the second energy crisis within six months, the first stemming from US sanctions on NIS. A key factor remains the potential deal between Russia’s Gazpromneft and Hungary’s MOL for a controlling stake in NIS, pending US approval. The US Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has extended NIS’s operating license until March 20. Financial reports show that NIS ended 2025 with a net loss of approximately 47 million euros, largely accumulated during the period when sanctions were implemented.

In 2025, Serbia exported over 127,000 tons of gasoline, nearly half of which went to Bosnia and Herzegovina, while Eurodiesel exports, smaller in volume, were largely directed to Bulgaria. Analysts warn that if the conflict in the Middle East persists and domestic reserves decline, Serbia could face further price shocks, with regional implications for neighboring countries dependent on its exports.