Five Parties Projected to Enter Bulgaria’s Next Parliament, Radev’s Formation Leads - CAM Survey

A recent sociological survey conducted by the Center for Analysis and Marketing (CAM) in February indicates that five parties are likely to secure seats in Bulgaria’s next parliament. According to the study, these parties are Rumen Radev’s formation, GERB, WCC-DB, DPS-New Beginning, and “Revival.”

The survey, carried out from February 17 to 24, involved 1,010 adult citizens interviewed directly in their homes using standardized questionnaires. Participation was funded by CAM. Among those expressing a willingness to vote, 33.7% said they would support Radev’s party (still unannounced). GERB follows with 18.9%, "We Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria" (WCC-DB) with 13.2%, Delyan Peevski's DPS-New Beginning at 10.3%, and “Revival” at 8.1%. Other parties, including the Bulgarian Socialist Party (3.6%), "Morality, Unity, Honor" (3.5%), "There Is Such a People" (1.2%), and “Greatness” (1.2%), remain below the parliamentary threshold. Nearly 30% of respondents have yet to decide whom they will vote for.

Regarding the formation of a government, 45% believe the new parliament should elect a regular cabinet even if compromises are necessary, while 29.9% prefer to avoid crossing red lines and favor fresh elections if no acceptable coalition is possible. About 36% expect a cabinet will be formed, 34% are skeptical, and 30% remain uncertain.

When asked about potential coalitions if no party achieves a majority, 34.3% of respondents expressed a preference for a government led by Radev, 12.1% for a GERB-led cabinet, and 7.1% for a WCC-DB-led government, while 24.3% suggested that new elections would be appropriate in such a scenario.

Public sentiment for 2026 is largely pessimistic: over 46% anticipate the national situation will worsen, 14.9% expect improvements, and 35.1% predict stability. On a personal level, only 15.7% foresee better conditions, 43% expect no change, and 36.6% predict a decline.

In terms of trust, the survey finds that former and current presidents hold the highest approval ratings, with Rumen Radev at 47.4% and Iliana Yotova at 44.9%. The presidency itself is viewed as the most trusted institution, with 50.6%. Among other politicians, acting Prime Minister Andrey Gyurov scores 21.7%, followed by Boyko Borissov (15.9%), Raya Nazaryan (15.4%), Kostadin Kostadinov (15.2%), Rosen Zhelyazkov (14.9%), and Asen Vassilev (13.8%). Other political figures such as Nikolai Denkov, Radostin Vassilev, Krum Zarkov, Ivelin Mihaylov, Bozhidar Bozhanov, and Atanas Atanasov receive between 10% and 13%. Delyan Peevski and Borislav Sarafov register the lowest trust levels at 4.6% and 3.9%, respectively.

The survey, presented to BTA by sociologist Yuliy Pavlov, highlights that Radev’s party would likely secure between 80 and 100 parliamentary seats if the two marginal parties (BSP and MECH) fail to cross the 4% threshold. The data confirms that Bulgaria’s next parliament will feature five parties with guaranteed representation, while two others still have the potential to enter.

Past surveys:

Trend - Bulgaria: Radev’s Formation Leads with 32.7%, Five Parties Certain to Enter Parliament, According to a Survey

Myara - Bulgaria: Rumen Radev Leads with 33%, but Falls Short of Solo Rule, According to a Survey

Market Links - Former President Leads Early-Election Race in Bulgaria as the Liberals Trail in Third Place, Survey Shows