Bulgaria Closes 2025 Budget with Record Revenue Growth and Deficit Near Target

The consolidated fiscal program (CFP) for 2025 closed with a deficit of BGN 6,828.3 million (approximately EUR 3.49 billion), representing 3.1 percent of the projected gross domestic product. This emerges from monthly cash execution reports of the primary budget spending units and was announced by the Ministry of Finance.

Despite public concerns about a potential widening of the deficit compared to the indicative annual target of 3 percent of GDP, the final result shows only a marginal deviation of 0.1 percentage points. According to the Finance Ministry, the outcome reflects sustained efforts throughout the year to improve revenue collection while maintaining expenditure discipline under challenging economic conditions.

Revenue performance
Total revenues, grants and donations under the CFP for 2025 reached BGN 86,086.2 million (around EUR 44.01 billion), equal to 95.4 percent of the planned annual level. Compared with the previous year, revenues increased by BGN 14,071.0 million (about EUR 7.20 billion), marking a year-on-year growth of 19.5 percent, the strongest nominal increase recorded in recent years.

Tax revenues were the main driver of this rise, increasing by 15.3 percent compared to 2024, or BGN 8,986.8 million (approximately EUR 4.59 billion). Non-tax revenues rose by BGN 2,168.0 million (around EUR 1.11 billion), while grants and donations increased by BGN 2,916.2 million (about EUR 1.49 billion).

Expenditure trends
Total expenditures under the CFP, including Bulgaria’s contribution to the EU budget, amounted to BGN 92,914.5 million (approximately EUR 47.50 billion), representing 96.1 percent of the annual estimates. For comparison, CFP expenditures in 2024 stood at BGN 78,178.8 million (around EUR 39.96 billion). It should be noted that the 2024 data include a one-off transaction in February of that year, when BGN 1,200.0 million (about EUR 614 million) was reimbursed from the foreign funds account of the Ministry of Regional Development and Public Works.

After excluding this transaction to ensure comparability, expenditures in 2025 increased by BGN 13,535.7 million (approximately EUR 6.92 billion), or 17.1 percent. The growth was largely driven by higher spending on social and health insurance, which rose by BGN 4,141.6 million (around EUR 2.12 billion), an increase of 11.9 percent. Personnel costs increased by BGN 4,050.4 million (approximately EUR 2.07 billion), or 20 percent.

Capital expenditures and transfers also expanded significantly, rising by BGN 3,514.6 million (about EUR 1.80 billion), or 43.9 percent on a comparable basis. This surge is primarily linked to increased payments under EU-funded projects. Spending and transfers from the National Fund under the Recovery and Resilience Plan alone amounted to BGN 2,790.7 million (around EUR 1.43 billion). As a result, RRP-related expenditures in 2025 were nearly double the total payments recorded over the previous two years combined, reflecting the renegotiation of the plan and the accelerated implementation of projects during the year.

EU contribution, debt and fiscal reserve
Bulgaria’s contribution to the EU budget, paid from the central budget by the end of 2025, totaled BGN 2,036.0 million (approximately EUR 1.04 billion), in line with the applicable EU own resources legislation.

As of December 31, 2025, the nominal amount of state debt stood at BGN 61.4 billion (around EUR 31.4 billion). The debt-to-GDP ratio at the end of the year was 27.8 percent.

The fiscal reserve amounted to BGN 17,467.038 million (approximately EUR 8.93 billion). Of this total, BGN 14,865.883 million (around EUR 7.60 billion) was held in deposits with the Bulgarian National Bank and commercial banks, while BGN 2,601.155 million (about EUR 1.33 billion) represented receivables from EU funds related to certified expenditures, advances and other items.