Gas Transit Agreement Ends: Ukraine Stops Russian Gas Flow

Ukraine has ceased the transit of Russian natural gas as of the morning of 1 January, transitioning its gas transmission system to operate without transit. This development follows the expiration of a 2019 cooperation agreement between the Gas Transmission System Operator of Ukraine and Russia's Gazprom. Consequently, the transportation of gas from the Sudzha entry point on Ukraine's eastern border to exit points on its western and southern borders has been halted. Ukrainian officials have informed international partners about the termination in line with established procedures.

The Gas Transmission System Operator of Ukraine has prepared for this change by optimising its infrastructure to operate in a zero-transit mode while ensuring a reliable gas supply to Ukrainian consumers. The company has also reduced its own gas consumption and streamlined its assets outside the gas transmission system. CEO Dmytro Lypa affirmed the operator's readiness to meet the new operational demands. Additionally, arrangements have been made to increase guaranteed capacities for potential gas supplies through Ukraine if requested by Europe. Ukrainian authorities have reiterated that they are open to facilitating gas transit from alternative suppliers.

The cessation of gas transit comes against the backdrop of Ukraine's refusal to negotiate an extension of the existing agreement with Russia, which expired at the end of 2024. The Ukrainian government has maintained that it is not conducting discussions on continuing Russian gas transit, focusing instead on alternatives. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev previously expressed confidence in a potential agreement between Russia and Ukraine to sustain gas supplies to European nations, though this has not materialized.

Meanwhile, Ukraine's air defence forces successfully intercepted 63 Russian drones during a large-scale attack on New Year’s Eve and early on 1 January. Among 111 drones launched from Russia and occupied Crimea, 46 malfunctioned and disappeared from radar without causing harm, while two returned to Russian or Belarusian territory. The drones targeted multiple regions, including Kyiv, Sumy, Poltava, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, and were launched from sites such as Bryansk and Primorsko-Akhtarsk.

The attack caused damage in Kyiv, where drone wreckage struck a residential building in the Pecherskyi district, partially destroying the top two floors and sparking a fire. Six people were injured, including a pregnant woman, with two requiring hospitalisation. Additional wreckage caused fires and tram track damage in the Sviatoshynskyi district. Emergency services responded promptly to contain the fires and assist the injured.

On the battlefield, intense clashes continued across multiple fronts in Ukraine. Ukrainian forces repelled over 191 Russian assaults in the past 24 hours, with significant activity recorded on the Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Kramatorsk fronts. The heaviest fighting occurred near settlements such as Zelene Pole, Promin, and Chasiv Yar. Despite sustaining heavy losses, Russian forces persisted with attempts to gain ground, though their progress remained limited.

The Institute for the Study of War reported that Russia gained approximately 4,168 square kilometres of territory in 2024, primarily consisting of rural areas, at the cost of over 420,000 casualties. Russian advances peaked between September and November but slowed considerably in December. High personnel losses continued, with an average of 1,585 troops lost daily in December. Analysts suggest that such casualty rates may strain Russia's ability to sustain its offensives, particularly in heavily defended areas like Donetsk Oblast.

In his New Year’s address, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy underscored the necessity of a strong Ukraine to achieve peace and maintain global respect. He expressed confidence in continued US support, referencing discussions with both outgoing President Joe Biden and President-elect Donald Trump. Zelenskyy reiterated that peace cannot be gifted and requires Ukraine’s determination to resist Russian aggression. He highlighted recent Ukrainian advancements, including cross-border operations and the development of domestically produced weaponry, as critical to maintaining momentum in the conflict.

The president warned against trusting Russia in negotiations or military engagements, emphasising that freedom remains a threat to the Kremlin. He stressed the importance of securing security guarantees from Western allies and progressing toward NATO membership to safeguard Ukraine’s sovereignty.

Sources:

• Ukrainska Pravda
• Telegram
• ISW
• Facebook