Assoc. Prof. Dimitar Atanasov: Stress on Health System Should Help Improve It

Health | December 1, 2020, Tuesday // 10:06|  views


One of the main criteria by which health systems in different countries are compared is the average number of cases when a patient‘s life has been saved. On average for European countries, this is 1-1.5, that is, at least once for everyone, Assoc. Prof. Dimitar Atanasov, Head of the Department of Informatics at the New Bulgarian University told the Bulgarian National Radio (BNR).

  "A yardstick for any health system is how efficient it is in saving people's lives. What is noticeable in Bulgaria at the moment is that the national health system may not be the optimal. Obviously, there are some imperfections that could be ironed out. This type of epidemic, workload and stress on a system should lead to its improvement, if we look at it purely evolutionary," he said.

Assoc. Prof. Dimitar Atanasov is the author of the book "Patterns of Mortality". He focused on the mortality factor associated with the Coronavirus. Atanasov compared the current data with last year's number of deaths per day, which were about 300, and assumed that by the end of this year the mortality rate will increase by about 50%.

Until a decade ago, Bulgaria ranked third in infections, taking into account the number of people who one person manages to infect, and this also presupposes higher mortality after a certain time, the professor explained.

According to him, restrictive measures will reduce the number of infected and the percentage of positive tests, but "how many tests are done is one thing, how many people are sick is another."

As regards the mathematical models, Assoc. Prof. Dimitar Atanasov pointed out that the indicator for reproduction of the virus, for example, can be considered on multiple models and thus yield different values, but if we stick to a constant pattern, we can talk of the viability of the predictions and conclusions.


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Tags: Bulgaria, COVID-19, healthcare system


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