Bulgaria’s October 5 Elections: A Flashback at the Economic Records

Expert Voices |Author: Steve Hanke | October 4, 2014, Saturday // 12:26|  views

Photo by BGNES

Bulgarians will go to the polls on October 5th to elect new members of parliament and thus a new government. Before casting their votes, voters should reflect on the economic records of Bulgaria’s governments since 1995.

Every country aims to lower inflation, unemployment and lending rates, while increasing gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. Through a simple sum of the former three rates, minus year-on-year per capita GDP growth, I constructed a misery index for each of Bulgaria’s six governments since 1995 (see the accompanying table).

Bulgaria clearly lacked an “economic constitution” – one that would provide fiscal discipline and monetary stability. So, in the midst of the turmoil of the 1996-97 hyperinflation episode, Bulgaria took an important first step towards what would become an economic constitution.

As President Stoyanov’s advisor, I played a role in ending Bulgaria’s hyperinflation nightmare. Six short months after I presented my blueprint for a Bulgarian currency board to the President, the currency board was born (July 1997). With the currency board in place, Bulgaria’s misery index fell like a stone, falling by 97% during the conservative Kostov government’s tenure. Fiscal discipline and monetary stability were finally established.

Since the Kostov years, Bulgaria has had four governments and the misery index has fluctuated around a reading of 20. The currency board has clearly given Bulgaria fiscal discipline and monetary stability. The misery index readings in the table attest to that fact. The other thing that the misery index readings make clear is that the socialist-led governments in Bulgaria have delivered misery (Videnov 1995-97, Stanishev 2005-09 and Oresharski 2013-14).

Steve Hanke is Professor of Applied Economics at The Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, Maryland, USA.

In Bulgaria he is known as the "Father of the Currency Board", which saw Bulgaria's currency, the lev (BGN), pegged to the Deutsche Mark (DEM) and later to the euro (EUR). 

The text above also appeared on the Cato Institute's website.


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Tags: early elections, misery index, Petar Stoyanov, Bulgaria, Kostov, Stanishev, Videnov, oresharski


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