Iran War Day 45: “Very Close to Over” - Trump Signals Possible Deal

US President Donald Trump said the conflict with Iran is “very close to over,” pointing to the possibility of a new round of direct talks expected to take place in Pakistan in the coming days. Speaking to Fox News, he suggested that Tehran is eager to reach an agreement, stating it “wants to make a deal very badly,” even as military pressure continues to build.

At the same time, the United States has intensified its naval actions, with officials confirming that a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz has now “completely halted economic trade going into and out of Iran by sea.” The measure has entered its second day, raising concerns about wider disruptions to global energy flows. Iranian officials, however, signaled they are prepared to assert control over the strategic waterway, warning that vessels linked to “adversaries” may not be allowed passage and that transit could be subject to coordination or new charges.

Beyond Iran, the regional situation remains volatile. Israeli strikes have targeted multiple locations in Lebanon, including areas south of Beirut such as Saadiyat and al-Jiya, as well as towns deeper in the south. Despite a relative lull in the capital following earlier deadly bombardments, there is still no ceasefire in place. “There is no ceasefire,” observers note, with Hezbollah continuing rocket fire and Israeli forces maintaining air raids and ground operations, while more than one million people remain displaced.

Diplomatic efforts are unfolding in parallel, though on separate tracks. Talks concerning Lebanon and Israel appear to have been decoupled from the broader Iran conflict, with any arrangement expected to be negotiated independently and mediated by the United States. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif is embarking on a regional tour, holding meetings in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkiye focused on “regional peace and security” ahead of potential US-Iran negotiations.

The economic consequences are already being felt globally. The International Monetary Fund warned that “the damage is already done,” even if the conflict ends quickly, projecting slower growth and rising inflation. In a prolonged scenario, global growth could drop to around 2 percent, while inflation may exceed 6 percent next year. Oil markets remain particularly exposed, with prices potentially climbing well above USD 100 per barrel if disruptions persist.

Energy security concerns are also mounting in Asia. South Korea announced it has secured 273 million barrels of crude oil from multiple suppliers, enough to sustain normal consumption for more than three months. Officials highlighted that roughly 70 percent of the country’s oil imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, underlining the strategic risk posed by the ongoing blockade.

Tensions extend into political disputes among Western allies as well. Trump criticized Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni for refusing to support military action against Iran, saying he was “shocked” by her stance and accusing her of lacking resolve. The remarks added to a broader series of disagreements, including criticism directed at religious figures over statements related to the conflict.

With military operations ongoing, diplomatic channels uncertain, and economic pressures mounting, the situation remains fluid. While Washington signals that a resolution may be within reach, developments on the ground suggest that both the regional conflict and its global repercussions are far from settled.