New Survey in Bulgaria: Radev’s Formation Tops Vote with 29.8%, No Party Near Majority

A new national survey by Gallup International Balkan suggests that if elections in Bulgaria were held today, voter turnout would reach around 51%, while no political force would secure enough support to form a single-party government. The findings are based on a representative poll conducted between February 10 and February 28.

Among respondents who have already decided how they would vote, the political formation linked to Rumen Radev (Progressive Bulgaria) leads with 29.8% support. Despite the strong starting position, the result remains insufficient to ensure an independent majority in parliament.

GERB ranks second with 19.6% of decided voters backing the party. According to the survey, the formation associated with Boyko Borissov continues to rely on a stable core electorate. Analysts note that narrowing the gap with the leading political force will largely depend on the effectiveness of its campaign during the election period.

"We Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria" (WCC-DB) occupies third place with 11.0%, although the research indicates a downward trend in its support. The decline is linked to recent controversies, including the “Petrohan” case, as well as the party’s perceived connection to the caretaker government - issues that dominated public discussion during the period when the survey was conducted. Nevertheless, analysts believe that a stronger mobilization of protest voters could still improve the coalition’s result.

Close behind is DPS-New Beginning, which records 10.9% support among voters who have made their choice. Meanwhile, the “Revival” party receives 6.0%, remaining above the 4% threshold required for parliamentary representation despite a notable drop in support.

Several other parties are currently positioned below the electoral barrier, though some still have a chance to enter parliament. "Morality, Unity, Honor" (MECH) registers 3.3%, followed by the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) with 2.9%, "There Is Such a People" (TISP) with 2.8%, and “Greatness” with 2.2%. The "Alliance for Rights and Freedoms" (APS) formation, with 1% support, would remain outside the National Assembly if elections took place now.

The survey is part of Gallup International Balkan’s independent research program and was funded by the organization itself. Data was collected through standardized face-to-face interviews using tablets. The study included 800 adult respondents across Bulgaria, with the sample structured according to age, gender, education, and type of settlement.

Past surveys:

Alpha Research - Bulgaria: Five Parties Poised for Parliament as Radev’s Project Surges, Survey Shows

Center for Analysis and Marketing - Five Parties Projected to Enter Bulgaria’s Next Parliament, Radev’s Formation Leads - CAM Survey

Trend - Bulgaria: Radev’s Formation Leads with 32.7%, Five Parties Certain to Enter Parliament, According to a Survey

Myara - Bulgaria: Rumen Radev Leads with 33%, but Falls Short of Solo Rule, According to a Survey

Market Links - Former President Leads Early-Election Race in Bulgaria as the Liberals Trail in Third Place, Survey Shows