Bulgaria: Rumen Radev Leads with 33%, but Falls Short of Solo Rule, According to a Survey

According to the latest nationwide survey by the sociological agency "Myara", if parliamentary elections were held in mid-February, voter participation would reach 51.5 percent, translating into the involvement of roughly three million voters.

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The current distribution of support outlines a clear hierarchy, with five political forces comfortably positioned to cross the parliamentary threshold, while two more remain on the edge. The strongest result is recorded by a political formation built around former President Rumen Radev, which gathers 33.3 percent among decided voters. GERB follows at a considerable distance with 18.9 percent, while WCC-DB secures 12.7 percent. DPS-New Beginning receives 10.7 percent, and Revival stands at 6.8 percent.

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Behind them, the race for parliamentary entry tightens significantly. MECH (3.9 percent) and BSP (3.7 percent) are locked in a close contest for the final seat in the National Assembly. Greatness registers 2.3 percent, TISP 2.1 percent, and APS 1.9 percent, with the remaining votes distributed among smaller formations. In addition, 1.5 percent of those intending to vote say they will choose the option “I do not support anyone”.

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Sociologists stress that the data represents a snapshot rather than a prediction. The fieldwork coincided with the peak of the Petrohan scandal and only partially reflects the effect of Krum Zarkov’s recent election as BSP leader. The study forms part of Myara’s regular independent research programme and was conducted face-to-face with tablets between February 9 and 15, 2026, among 812 adult Bulgarian citizens. The margin of error is ±3.5 percent, with one percent corresponding to approximately 54,000 people nationwide.

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In parliamentary arithmetic terms, the figures clearly indicate that Radev’s formation would fall short of governing alone. With 33.3 percent of the vote, it would likely secure around 80 seats in the 240-member National Assembly, well below the 121 seats required for a single-party majority. This means that any attempt to form a government would inevitably require coalition partners. A possible alliance with WCC-DB, for example, would significantly strengthen the numbers, while alternative coalition configurations would also be necessary if Radev aims to assemble a stable governing majority.

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