France and Germany’s Future Fighter Jet Project on the Brink of Collapse

According to POLITICO, the long-delayed Future Combat Air System (FCAS) being developed by France, Germany and Spain is now widely seen by officials in Paris and Berlin as nearing its end. Four European officials told the outlet that formally ending the project appears more likely than attempting yet another relaunch.

One official familiar with the thinking of French President Emmanuel Macron said an announcement declaring the program over is increasingly probable. A French lawmaker involved in defense policy echoed that assessment, saying the project is effectively finished, even if no one wants to say so openly.

FCAS was launched in 2017 by Macron and then-German Chancellor Angela Merkel as a flagship European effort to build a sixth-generation combat system, centered on a new fighter jet, supported by drones and a shared combat cloud. Its collapse would represent a major political setback for Macron, who has personally invested in keeping the project alive. However, the program has been stalled for nearly a year due to unresolved industrial disputes.

French officials privately acknowledge that abandoning FCAS would send a damaging political message, which is why Macron has continued to push for its survival. Publicly, Paris maintains that efforts to save the program are ongoing. The new head of France’s arms procurement agency, Patrick Pailloux, said this week that authorities are still trying to find a way forward. Neither the French Defense Ministry nor the German government responded to POLITICO’s requests for comment.

The difficulties surrounding FCAS have come to symbolize the broader challenges of European defense cooperation at a time when the continent is rearming in response to Russia and uncertainty over long-term US military commitment. The central dispute revolves around the manned fighter jet, with Dassault and Airbus clashing over leadership, technological control and the division of work. Dassault has been pushing for greater authority over the development of the Next Generation Fighter, the core element of FCAS.

France and Germany attempted for months to resolve these issues and had set a deadline of December 17 last year. That deadline passed without agreement, reinforcing pessimism within both governments.

The bleak outlook has coincided with internal discussions in Berlin about radically changing course. POLITICO reports that German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has considered several scenarios, including splitting the fighter component into separate national aircraft or withdrawing Germany from the fighter project altogether. German officials say Merz has shared these thoughts with visiting French representatives, although Berlin has not yet decided how to formally present such a shift.

The uncertainty has drawn renewed attention to FCAS’s rival, the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP), led by the UK, Italy and Japan. Two European defense officials told POLITICO that Germany has quietly examined what joining GCAP might entail. Italian media reported that Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni signaled openness to German participation when the issue was raised by Merz last month.

Following reports of Berlin’s interest in the rival project, Macron reportedly wrote to Merz seeking clarification on Germany’s position on FCAS. The issue could be discussed during informal talks on the sidelines of this week’s European Council meeting.

Despite the growing doubts, German officials say Berlin still wants to preserve parts of the original cooperation, particularly shared elements such as the combat cloud and other joint systems, even if the fighter jet itself ultimately splits into separate national designs.