52% of Ukrainians Reject Giving Up Donbas, 40% Open to Concessions

A recent survey by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) shows that Ukrainian public opinion remains largely opposed to conceding territory in the ongoing conflict with Russia, with nuanced views on the potential end of the war and military responses.

According to the poll, 52% of Ukrainians consider it completely unacceptable to hand over Donbas to Russia in exchange for security guarantees, while 40% are willing to accept such a concession, though most describe it as a difficult condition. Seven percent of respondents were undecided. Regional differences were evident: in Kyiv, 59% reject any transfer of Donbas compared to 31% who would accept it; in western Ukraine, 57% oppose the concession versus 38% who support it; in the central and northern regions, opposition stands at 49% with 42% in favor; in the south, 49% oppose and 44% accept; and in the east, 50% reject the idea while 39% consider it acceptable. The survey was conducted from 23 to 29 January via telephone interviews with a random sample of 1,003 Ukrainian adults, excluding occupied territories. The margin of error for the Donbas question is 5.8%.

The poll also reveals shifting expectations regarding the war’s duration. Only 21% of respondents believe the conflict could end in the coming weeks or by the first half of 2026, down from 33% in autumn 2025 and 26% in December. Another 18% expect the war to conclude in the second half of 2026, while 43% anticipate it will continue into 2027 or beyond, and 19% were unsure. Despite these trends, a majority of 65% said they are prepared to endure the war for as long as necessary, consistent with previous surveys. This willingness to sustain the conflict ranges regionally from 58% in the east to 72% in Kyiv, with other regions reporting 64–66%. Those unwilling to endure the war indefinitely most often cited concerns over casualties, infrastructure damage, economic hardship, and disruptions to electricity or heating.

Public sentiment also strongly supports military retaliation against Russia. The survey found that 90% of Ukrainians favor strikes on Russian territory, unchanged since February 2023. However, the proportion supporting attacks on targets beyond strictly military ones has grown sharply. Currently, 80% endorse strikes not only on military facilities but also on other strategic sites, including infrastructure and energy facilities. Specifically, 7% favor targeting military and oil-and-gas sites, 48% include energy infrastructure more broadly, and 25% even support strikes affecting the Russian population, up from 13% in 2023. Ukrainian forces have reportedly focused on Russian military plants, ammunition depots, airfields, and oil refineries supplying the Russian army.

The KIIS survey, conducted under wartime conditions, relied on telephone interviews with a nationally representative sample of 1,003 adults living in government-controlled areas, excluding temporarily occupied territories and those who left the country. Despite the challenges of surveying during conflict, researchers note that the results remain highly representative and provide reliable insight into public attitudes toward territorial concessions, war duration, and military strategy.