Coface Survey: Global Corporate Bankruptcies to Rise by 2.8% in 2026

According to a new Coface survey, corporate bankruptcies worldwide are expected to increase by 2.8% in 2026, despite a gradual easing of financing costs. The report warns that the apparent stabilization remains fragile, with high debt levels and vulnerable sectors such as construction, chemicals, and textiles still under pressure.

Corporate bankruptcies are expected to increase slightly in 2026, despite a gradual easing of financing costs. Behind this apparent stabilization, however, lies a still high level of fragility, particularly in the construction, chemical, and textile sectors. An increase of just 25 basis points in business lending rates would be enough to disrupt the easing trend.

Key figures

• +2.8%: expected global increase in corporate insolvencies in 2026

• +2%: expected rise in France (in line with new business creation) and the United Kingdom

• +4%: expected increase in the United States due to sectors vulnerable to recent policies, such as tariffs borne by U.S. companies

• +1%: forecast increase in Germany, marked by weak private-sector activity despite generous government stimulus

• –2%: expected decline in insolvencies in Italy, driven by a shrinking number of active companies

• –3%: expected decline in Spain, supported by improved macroeconomic momentum

• 25 basis points: the critical threshold that could offset the expected slowdown and push global insolvency growth back up to around +4–5% in 2026

“2026 should bring more relief than real improvement. The number of bankruptcies will not fall; it will simply stop accelerating. If interest rates decline more slowly than expected, the stabilization will disappear immediately,” said Jonathan Steinberg, economist for Northwestern Europe (the UK, Ireland, Benelux, and Scandinavia) at Coface.

2026: A Misleading Stabilization

After three years of steady growth, 2026 is expected to mark a period of calm. Insolvencies will continue to rise, but at a slower pace, supported by gradually declining interest rates and improved credit conditions. However, this stabilization remains fragile: debt levels are still high, margins are compressed, and the most vulnerable sectors continue to show signs of stress.

Europe: Stabilization Highly Dependent on Financing Costs

Germany (+1% insolvencies in 2026), France, and the United Kingdom (+2%) are expected to maintain high levels, while Spain (–3%) is set to benefit from stronger macroeconomic momentum. Italy (–2%) will rely mainly on the statistical effects of procedural reforms. In the Netherlands, the increase (+4%) reflects a gradual return to levels close to those seen before the pandemic. The continent remains extremely sensitive to credit costs, which will largely determine the trajectory for 2026.

North America and Asia-Pacific: Relative Calm but Diverging Trends

In North America, trends diverge: in the United States (+4%), companies will continue to be affected by economic slowdown and rising tariffs, while Canada (–5%) is expected to enter a marked downturn after a prolonged growth cycle.

In the Asia-Pacific region, Japan (+7%) will continue to be impacted by persistently high interest rates and several vulnerable sectors, while Australia (+0.5%) is expected to reach a plateau following strong post-pandemic normalization. These dynamics confirm that local shocks—monetary, sectoral, or regulatory—will continue to shape insolvency trends in 2026.

A 25 Basis Point Increase Would Be Enough to Reverse the Trend

The expected stabilization in 2026 depends on a gradual decline in interest rates, but the balance remains fragile. Companies are still highly sensitive to credit costs after several years of excessive debt accumulation. A 25 basis point increase in lending rates could push global insolvencies back up to around +4–5%, mirroring the trend observed in 2025.

Such a scenario would particularly affect European economies, which are more exposed to variable-rate debt, as well as sectors with limited debt-servicing capacity, such as construction, chemicals, and textiles. This heightened sensitivity underscores that in 2026, insolvency trends will depend less on economic growth and more on the pace of monetary adjustment—making financing costs the true arbiter of the year ahead.

Read the full Coface report