Think Tank: Bulgaria’s Black Sea Position Strengthened as Regional Risks Grow

Bulgaria’s role in the Black Sea region is becoming increasingly significant as part of NATO’s southeastern flank and as the Alliance’s main access point to the Black Sea, according to a new report by the international think tank GLOBSEC, released on Monday.

The analysis notes that the sustained weakening of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet following repeated Ukrainian strikes has further elevated the strategic value of Bulgarian territory and infrastructure. While Bulgaria’s institutional alignment with the European Union and NATO is firmly established, the report underlines that public sentiment inside the country remains mixed when it comes to its Western orientation and democratic trajectory.

Data from GLOBSEC Trends 2025 indicate a society that is sharply split over geopolitical issues and broadly dissatisfied with the quality of governance. Although the formation of a technocratic government in late 2024 brought a degree of political stabilization, confidence in state institutions and satisfaction with how democracy functions remain among the lowest across Central and Eastern Europe, the report says.

This mood is attributed to a prolonged period of political turbulence marked by repeated elections and unstable governing coalitions, which has fueled voter exhaustion and skepticism. According to GLOBSEC, this frustration also shapes attitudes toward the EU and NATO, often perceived by parts of the population as remote or ineffective in addressing everyday domestic concerns, narratives that are frequently reinforced and exploited.

Despite these divisions, the latest survey results suggest that Bulgarian public opinion reflects a combination of resilience and exposure to risk within the country’s democratic and security environment, pointing to both strengths and ongoing vulnerabilities.

GLOBSEC is an international policy institute headquartered in Bratislava, focused on promoting security, economic development, and sustainable growth in Europe and beyond. It defines itself as an independent, non-partisan, and non-governmental organization, building on the legacy of the Slovak Atlantic Commission established in 1993. In parallel, the GLOBSEC US Foundation was created to expand the organization’s presence in the United States, particularly among policy experts and decision-makers in Washington, while reinforcing the visibility of Central and Eastern Europe in American policy debates and supporting the broader GLOBSEC network.