Bulgaria: Early Elections Could Shift Balance as 40% of Citizens Want a New Party

A recent national survey conducted by Alpha Research between 5 and 12 December 2025 shows that a significant portion of Bulgarians are seeking new political alternatives. The study, which included 1,000 adult respondents from across the country through face-to-face tablet interviews, reveals that 40.3% of citizens want a new party to emerge on the political scene, around which a future government could be formed. This sentiment reflects growing public dissatisfaction with the current political landscape and follows the third major protest on 10 December, which preceded the resignation of the Zhelyazkov cabinet.

Current electoral preferences indicate that GERB retains the leading position with 21.4% support among those who are certain to vote. The party's leader, Boyko Borissov, maintains 21.6% trust, although his personal disapproval has risen sharply to 58.8%. In contrast, the WCC-DB coalition has gained momentum, with support rising to 17.8% of decided voters following its backing of the mass protests. Despite the coalition’s improving public image, individual leaders have not seen corresponding increases in personal trust: Asen Vassilev at 14.6% (63.2% distrust), Ivaylo Mirchev 14.4% (57.1% distrust), Bozhidar Bozhanov 12.9% (56.3% distrust), and Atanas Atanasov 8.2% (58.3% disapproval).

Revival occupies third place with 11.6% support, while its leader Kostadin Kostadinov holds 10.8% trust against 60% distrust. The DPS–New Beginning, led by Delyan Peevski, continues to face the highest levels of disapproval, with 5.6% trust versus 80.3% distrust, yet the party ranks fourth in electoral preference with 9.4% of firm voters. Coalition partners BSP and TISP are on the verge of parliamentary exclusion, with BSP supported by 4.9% and its leader Atanas Zafirov receiving 8.4% approval (58.8% disapproval), while TISP has 3.8% support and Slavi Trifonov’s approval falls to 7.6% (61% disapproval). MECH maintains 4.2% support, with Radostin Vassilev’s trust at 10.2% against 59.8% disapproval. Smaller formations Greatness and APS remain below parliamentary thresholds with 2.1% and 1.6% respectively.

The survey also indicates the potential for substantial voter mobilization in the event of early elections. The protests and government resignation appear to have increased voter readiness by 5 to 7 percentage points, translating to an additional 300,000 to 500,000 voters. Nearly 10% of potential voters expressed willingness to support parties outside the current parliamentary spectrum, and 13.3% remain undecided, leaving room for significant shifts in the political landscape.

Public support for the December protests was strong, with 59% expressing full solidarity, 16% opposing, and 25% partially supportive but concerned about potential negative outcomes. Protest sentiment was influential across social and electoral groups, though GERB supporters and segments of BSP and DPS voters were more cautious. The protests’ social energy, rapid spread across cities, and perceived civic strength contributed to the resignation of the Zhelyazkov cabinet, aligning with public expectations while reshaping party strategies in a dynamic political environment.

Regarding desired governance, 7.6% of respondents prefer a government formed around GERB and DPS–New Beginning, 16% support a GERB-centered government without DPS-NB, and another 16% favor a government built around other current parties. A significant 40% of respondents favor governance around a new political force. The eventual allocation of these votes could be decisive in early parliamentary elections and the formation of a future government. Should President Rumen Radev launch his own political project, he could attract roughly half of these voters, with the remainder dispersed across eurosceptic, nationalist, centrist, or pro-European initiatives.

On the assessment of 2025, 23% of Bulgarians judged it better than the previous year, 26% worse, and 51% unchanged. Individuals of working age, university graduates, and urban residents were more satisfied, whereas the elderly and rural populations were more critical. Nationally, 10% considered 2025 better for Bulgaria, while 56% viewed it negatively, and international events were seen positively by 8% and negatively by 60%.

Looking ahead to 2026, personal expectations show a slight increase in pessimism: 35% anticipate success, 27% foresee difficulties, and 38% expect no significant change. Pessimism regarding national development has risen to 45% from 40% in 2025, with optimism concentrated among younger voters and those under 40. Global expectations remain negative but less severe, with pessimists declining to 39% and optimists stable at 26%.

Public attitudes towards institutions remain critical. The coalition government that resigned held 17% positive, 25% neutral, and 58% negative evaluations. Prime Minister Rosen Zhelyazkov leaves office with 21% positive, 30% neutral, and 49% negative assessments. Public dissatisfaction with the 51st National Assembly is pronounced, with only 5% approval and 69% disapproval. Speaker Raya Nazaryan enjoys 14% trust, 45% distrust, and 41% neutral evaluations. President Rumen Radev retains the highest institutional rating, with 35% trust, 33% distrust, and 32% neutral assessments, though he is affected by the broader negative trend.

Trust in the judicial system remains low, with Acting Prosecutor General Borislav Sarafov receiving 4% positive, 38% neutral, and 58% negative ratings. Courts are approved by 14%, disapproved by 53%, and receive neutral assessments from 33% of respondents.