Fall of Pokrovsk Imminent? Russian Forces Tighten Their Grip on the Ukrainian Stronghold

Russian forces have made new advances both in Kharkiv and Donetsk oblasts, including inside the embattled city of Pokrovsk, according to DeepState, a Ukrainian military analysis group. The analysts reported Russian progress near Borivska Andriivka in Kharkiv Oblast, as well as around Karpivka and Kozatske in Donetsk Oblast, and within Pokrovsk itself.

Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence confirmed that special operations were continuing in Pokrovsk, with elite units working to prevent Russian troops from gaining fire control over vital logistics routes. Earlier, Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi denied claims that Pokrovsk or Myrnohrad were encircled, stressing that Ukrainian forces, including those from the Special Operations Forces, the Security Service of Ukraine, and Defence Intelligence, were carrying out coordinated missions to push Russian units out.

Over recent days, Russian troops have intensified their push toward Pokrovsk, using small sabotage and reconnaissance teams to infiltrate Ukrainian lines. Poor weather and low visibility have limited drone activity, creating more favorable conditions for Russian movements. Ukrainian troops are struggling with personnel shortages and logistical difficulties that have persisted for months. Despite the mounting pressure, Russian forces have not fully consolidated control inside Pokrovsk, where Ukrainian units, including special forces, continue to operate. In nearby Myrnohrad, about 5 km to the east, Russian troops have reached the city’s outskirts and are attempting to move further inside from the eastern direction.

The renewed fighting around Pokrovsk follows months of shifting momentum. After a relatively static spring, Russian forces launched a large-scale offensive between July and August, breaking through Ukrainian defenses east of the city and pushing toward Dobropillya and Myrnohrad. During that period, Pokrovsk became one of the most intense battlegrounds in the Donetsk sector. Ukraine countered with redeployed elite units that managed to retake some positions, though Russia held onto several key areas northeast of the city.

In late August and early September, Russian forces pushed north of Hrodivka, moving to within roughly 10 km southeast of Pokrovsk. Additional armored formations were transferred from Sumy and Kherson to reinforce the Pokrovsk front. Ukrainian units managed to stabilize parts of the southern line near Mykholaivka and launched attacks toward Myrne, while Russian sabotage groups operated from nearby Zvirove and Leontovychy, carrying out multiple infiltration attempts.

By mid-September, Russian troops had fortified those staging areas, using them to mount fresh assaults toward Troyanda and Shakhtarsky on Pokrovsk’s southern approaches. In early October, Russian forces renewed their attacks in force, launching major assaults toward Dobropillya and Pokrovsk’s northeastern flank. Around 12 October, they initiated an operation to retake the elevated terrain southeast of Volodymyrivka, a tactically important area previously reclaimed by Ukraine. Advancing under cover of fog and rain, Russian mechanized columns seized tree lines and cleared the northern route to Novotoretske, compelling Ukrainian units to pull back.

Further east, near Poltavka, Russian troops captured a gypsum quarry and nearby positions before moving toward the Staryy reservoir. On 12 October, two mechanized Russian groups attacked Volodymyrivka from the south and east. Despite losses from Ukrainian FPV drones, Russian infantry entered the village’s southern edge and began clearing operations. The area remains contested. Subsequent attacks from Poltavka forced Ukrainian forces back to Shakhove, less than a kilometer north.

By 13 October, Russian units had briefly taken Dorozhnje, though it was later recaptured by Ukrainian troops. Two days later, they established control over parts of the forests north of the Novyy reservoir, gaining a key position overlooking the route to Shakhove. Ukrainian artillery and drone strikes inflicted notable damage on advancing groups.

On 20 October, in the western Kucheriv Yar sector, Russian troops entered Nove Shakhove, taking much of it under control, while launching parallel attacks on Vilne. Farther south, Russian forces expanded control in northern Rodynske and western Chervonyi Lyman, supported by glide bomb strikes. Ukrainian defenders countered on the flanks and retained control over central Rodynske.

Around 5 km from Rodynske, Russian forces pressed their advance toward Myrnohrad from the east, seizing Novoekonomichne’s southern part and briefly capturing Balahan before being repelled.

Overall, the balance near Pokrovsk remains precarious. Ukrainian positions southwest and northeast of the city are under growing strain, and the shortage of personnel risks the loss of one of the few remaining access routes to Pokrovsk. The situation in Myrnohrad is even more critical, as Russian sabotage units are pushing deeper into the city from multiple directions, suggesting that further territorial losses may be imminent.