New Poll Shows Bulgarians Split on Flat vs. Progressive Tax System

A new sociological survey by the agency Myara reveals that Bulgarians remain divided over the future of taxation, with opinions almost evenly split between supporters of a flat and a progressive tax system. The poll, conducted between October 5 and 13 among 801 adults through face-to-face interviews using tablets, indicates there is no clear public consensus on which model the country should follow.

According to the data, 36.5 percent of respondents favor maintaining a flat tax, where everyone pays the same percentage of their income regardless of earnings. Meanwhile, 39.6 percent support a progressive system, where higher earners contribute a larger share of their income. Another 23.9 percent could not form an opinion. Myara’s researchers note that the question was experimental and meant to gauge general attitudes rather than preferences for immediate tax reform.

The data show notable differences across age and income groups. Younger respondents are largely undecided, with opinions split into roughly equal thirds. People in early working age tend to favor the flat tax, while those in older or lower-income groups are more likely to support progressive taxation. Researchers interpret this as a sign that public opinion on the issue remains fluid and still developing.

Falling Confidence in Personal Finances

Beyond taxation, the survey records a gradual decline in confidence about personal financial stability. In April, 32.2 percent of respondents expected their family’s financial situation to worsen within a year. This share rose to 40.5 percent in July and reached 41.5 percent in October. Those expecting no change dropped from 38.5 to 29.8 percent over the same period, while optimism remains low, with around 10 to 13 percent predicting improvement.

When asked how their household’s finances had actually changed over the past year, 45.7 percent said their situation had deteriorated, roughly the same as in previous months. Around 42.6 percent reported no change, while less than 10 percent said things had improved. These steady negative and neutral evaluations suggest that households continue to experience financial strain without notable shifts in either direction.

Strong Inflation Expectations, Steady Unemployment Outlook

Expectations for rising prices remain almost universal. In April, 76.4 percent expected prices to increase, rising to 82.1 percent in October. Very few expect any price stability or decrease, with those anticipating lower prices dropping to just over one percent. Myara analysts describe this as near-consensus pessimism about inflation.

Perceptions of unemployment have remained largely unchanged throughout the year. Roughly one-third of respondents in each survey wave predict higher unemployment, about the same share expect no change, and fewer than 10 percent foresee improvement. Around 20 percent remain uncertain, which researchers interpret as evidence of uncertainty rather than confidence in the labor market.

Mixed Perceptions of the National Economy

Public evaluations of Bulgaria’s overall economic situation are more ambiguous. The share of respondents describing the economy as “good” fell from 11.5 percent in April to 6.4 percent in October. Neutral assessments have increased slightly, reaching 31.8 percent, while negative ones remain dominant at about 58 percent.

However, when asked about how the economy has changed over the past year, the share of those who say it has worsened has actually declined slightly - from nearly 60 percent in April to 55.4 percent in October. About one-third believe conditions are unchanged, and only around eight percent think the economy has improved.

Looking ahead, expectations for the coming year remain largely pessimistic. More than half of respondents (52.4 percent) expect the national economy to worsen, a slight improvement from July’s 53.1 percent but still above the spring level of 47.8 percent. Only about one in ten expects improvement, while a fifth believe the economy will stay the same.

Persistent Skepticism, Subtle Anxiety

The survey confirms that Bulgarians continue to view the national economy and their household finances with caution. Myara notes that while some of this reflects traditional skepticism, the consistent pattern across several indicators suggests underlying anxiety about the country’s direction.

The findings come from Myara’s independent monthly research program, conducted with a maximum statistical deviation of ±3.5 percent at 50 percent shares. Each percentage point represents about 54,000 adult citizens.