No Price Drop Ahead, Only Slower Growth in Bulgaria’s Housing Market, Expert Predicts

Dobromir Ganev, chairman of the National Association “Real Estate,” stated in an interview with Bulgarian National Radio that property prices in Bulgaria are likely to continue rising in line with citizens’ income, particularly in major cities. He noted that migration toward cities offering better living conditions and higher wages plays a significant role in driving demand, while interest rates also affect the market.

Ganev estimated that property values have increased by roughly 40% over the past decade, excluding inflation. He emphasized that most of the activity is concentrated in 7–8 markets that account for nearly half of all real estate transactions. In these areas, prices are climbing rapidly, whereas smaller towns and regional cities often see rates below 1,000 euros per square meter. In Sofia, the average price per square meter currently stands between 2,300 and 2,500 euros, with similar upward trends observed in Plovdiv and Varna, roughly tracking wage growth in those cities.

Looking ahead, Ganev predicts a moderation in the market, largely due to the fading influence of speculative buying over the past few years. He expects that by the first half of 2026, fewer buyers will be actively driving prices upward. While he does not foresee a sharp decline in prices, growth rates are likely to slow, with some cities seeing increases of 10–16%.

In the longer term, Ganev does not anticipate major shifts in the fundamental factors affecting the real estate market. However, he cautioned that political decisions regarding the budget or national debt could lead to higher taxes, which might influence the property sector.