Analyst: Borissov Risks GERB’s Future as Support Shifts to Peevski's 'New Beginning'

Political scientist Ruja Smilova told Bulgarian National Radio that GERB’s sixth-place result in the recent local elections reflects an uncomfortable reality for the country’s leading party. She emphasized that regions like Pazardzhik, traditionally not GERB strongholds, now illustrate broader trends of declining support. According to Smilova, these shifts indicate that GERB is losing ground to the New Beginning party in several neighborhoods, and this trend may extend to other areas where the party has historically relied on strong voter backing.

Further reading: 'The Best Is Yet to Come!' - Peevski Celebrates DPS-New Beginning Victory in Pazardzhik

Smilova highlighted that for the first time, GERB appears to have incurred visible losses from its participation in government, with the decline coming at the expense of coalition partners rather than the opposition. She noted that in previous coalitions, smaller parties typically bore the brunt of political losses, but the current scenario shows a different dynamic. This, she said, explains why Borissov is dispatching representatives locally to gauge voter sentiment and monitor potential shifts toward more successful political alternatives.

The political scientist added that Borissov is wary of a direct confrontation with the leader of the DPS-New Beginning but is concerned about losing influence to a competitor whose support his government relies upon. According to Smilova, this explains his behavior in asserting that control over the government and National Assembly depends on him. She also noted that DPS-New Beginning strategically weakens opponents by adhering to key procedural decisions, a tactic Peevski used previously during assemblies with WCC-DB to assert influence and visibility.

Smilova further observed that Borissov is aware that forming a coalition with DPS-New Beginning could isolate GERB internationally. She described attempts to remove figures like Vladislav Goranov and the leader of New Beginning from the Magnitsky list as unsuccessful, illustrating the risks inherent in such cooperation. She concluded that Borissov recognizes the dangers posed by his reliance on Peevski, yet lacks the strength to emancipate himself politically, leaving his government dependent on DPS support.

On the topic of the public humiliation suffered by Rosen Zhelyazkov, Smilova characterized it as a psychological strategy that sheds light on why individuals in high-ranking positions tolerate such treatment, suggesting it serves to maintain broader political control and influence.

Source: BNR interview