Wind and Solar Surpass Coal: A Global Turning Point and What It Means for Bulgaria

For the first time, solar and wind energy have overtaken coal in global electricity production, a development that marks a historic milestone in the world’s energy transition. According to the new Global Electricity Mid-Year Insights 2025 report by the independent think tank Ember, the first half of 2025 saw renewable sources produce more electricity than coal, signaling a decisive shift in how the world meets its growing power needs.

Global shift in electricity generation

The report, which analyzes data from over 80 countries representing more than 90% of global electricity generation, confirms that wind and solar have reached a new global record. In just six months, these sources produced enough energy to not only meet but surpass the increase in global electricity demand. Consumption grew by 2.6% compared to the same period in 2024, equivalent to about 369 TWh, but solar and wind generation together provided nearly all of it. Solar alone rose by 31% year-on-year (+306 TWh), while wind increased by 7.7% (+97 TWh). As a result, fossil fuel generation fell slightly, by just under 1%, suggesting that emissions from the power sector may have reached their peak and are beginning to stabilize.

Asia leads the way, the West slows down

Asia remains the driving force behind this transformation. China, the world’s largest electricity producer, added more new wind and solar capacity in the first half of 2025 than the rest of the world combined. This expansion allowed it to cut fossil fuel generation by around 2% and reduce emissions from the electricity sector by about 46 million tons of CO₂. Solar output in China surged by an impressive 43%, while overall emissions in the country’s power sector fell by 1.7% compared to the previous year.

India also recorded a major leap. Its solar and wind generation grew by nearly 30%, triple the pace of its electricity demand. This led to a 3.1% drop in coal production and a sharp 34% fall in gas use, tangible proof that renewables there are displacing fossil fuels rather than merely keeping up with demand growth.

In contrast, some developed economies faced setbacks. In the United States, coal generation rose by 17% in early 2025 as demand grew faster than renewable expansion and political attention shifted elsewhere. Europe, too, struggled with weak winds and droughts, which reduced output from wind and hydropower. Despite robust solar growth, this led to a temporary increase in fossil fuel use; gas generation was up 14%, while coal grew by about 1.1%. Across the EU, fossil-based electricity rose by more than 14% in the first half of 2025, highlighting the system’s need for more flexibility and backup low-carbon capacity.

The global rise of solar

Globally, solar energy reached a record share of 8.8% of total electricity production in the first half of 2025. Countries like Greece and Hungary emerged as regional solar leaders, each covering over a quarter of their annual electricity needs through photovoltaics. In 2024, solar provided 28% of Greece’s electricity and nearly 30% of Hungary’s, according to Ember and Eurostat data.

Bulgaria’s solar boom

The global trend is clearly reflected in Bulgaria’s own energy landscape. The country is undergoing a rapid solar expansion, with photovoltaic generation hitting record highs. On June 20, 2025, solar power plants briefly met Bulgaria’s entire electricity demand around noon, producing over 3.2 GW and even generating a surplus for export. In 2024, solar output reached nearly 5 TWh, up 65% from 2023 and three times higher than in 2022. Renewables as a whole (including wind, hydro, and biomass) now account for over 25% of Bulgaria’s electricity mix.

This boom, combined with the country’s large nuclear base, has pushed coal below its traditional dominance. Coal-fired generation dropped to about 26% of total output in 2024, the first time it has lost its leading position. The closure of ContourGlobal Maritsa East 3 (908 MW) in early 2024 alone reduced annual electricity production by about 5%. Meanwhile, neighboring countries have been investing heavily in renewables and flexible capacity, which has sharply reduced their reliance on Bulgarian electricity. Exports fell to around 1 TWh in 2024, 70% less than in 2023, marking a historic low.

According to Bulgaria’s Electricity System Operator (ESO), new photovoltaic projects applying for grid connection total roughly 4.7 GW in 2025, 3.6 GW in 2026, and 1.5 GW in 2027, a planned capacity increase that’s more than double what was built in all previous years combined.

Drought, calm winds, and the need for flexibility

While renewables are now capable of covering global demand growth, climate conditions can temporarily undermine this progress. Dry periods and weak winds remain a challenge. In 2023, Europe saw its lowest hydropower output in at least 20 years due to severe drought, and early 2025 brought weak winds and limited water inflows, forcing greater use of gas and coal. Bulgaria experienced similar conditions in 2024, when drought reduced hydropower generation and wind farms produced only about 1.3 TWh, roughly 3% of total electricity, showing little increase over previous years.

The lesson from both global and national trends is clear: the transition to clean energy requires not only rapid growth in renewables but also investments in system flexibility. Stronger grid interconnections, energy storage systems, and smart balancing solutions are key to ensuring stability during periods of drought and windlessness.

Clean energy takes over

Ember’s findings suggest the world is entering a new phase of the energy transition, one where renewables are not just expanding but actively replacing coal as the leading sources of electricity. Despite regional challenges and climatic fluctuations, this milestone represents a decisive move toward a cleaner, more resilient global power system.

For Bulgaria and its neighbors, the message is unmistakable: the country’s energy future, and its competitiveness, will depend on how effectively it combines rapid renewable expansion with flexible, forward-looking planning that ensures stability even when the weather turns against it.

Author: Genady Kondarev is a writer at Climateka. He is an economist and expert in climate and energy policies with a focus on plans, strategies, economic programs and geopolitics in Bulgaria and Central and Eastern Europe. For nearly two decades, he has been working at the intersection of civil society, institutions and business, seeking solutions that combine environmental goals with social responsibility and economic logic. He has worked and continues to work for organizations such as the Black Sea Energy Research Center, E3G, "For the Earth" and the CEE Bankwatch Network, where he focuses on the decarbonization of the economy, sustainable heating and cooling, the efficient use of public funds and the inclusion of affected communities in the processes of change.

Source: Climateka.bg