Europe on the Brink? German Chancellor Warns 'War May Be Closer Than We Think'

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz declared that Europe finds itself in a precarious position with Russia, saying the continent is "not at war, but no longer at peace." His statement, delivered on September 29 in Düsseldorf, followed a series of escalating incidents attributed to Moscow in recent weeks, ranging from airspace violations to interference in elections across the region.

Merz warned that Russia is waging a "war against our democracy and a war against our freedom," arguing that the Kremlin’s objective is to weaken the European Union from within. His remarks came shortly after Germany reported multiple drone incursions overnight on September 26 in Schleswig-Holstein, part of a wider string of suspicious drone sightings also recorded in Denmark, Finland, and Lithuania.

The provocations have not been limited to drones. Estonian officials reported that Russian MiG-31 fighter jets had crossed into their airspace over the Gulf of Finland, prompting Tallinn to seek NATO consultations under Article 4. Meanwhile, in one of the most direct confrontations between NATO and Russia to date, Poland shot down Russian drones during a large-scale strike on Ukraine on September 10. Three days later, Romania scrambled F-16 fighter jets after detecting a drone intrusion on its territory.

Alongside these warnings, Merz renewed his call for the European Union to repurpose frozen Russian assets to bolster Ukraine’s defense. He suggested that channeling the funds into military support could sustain Kyiv for three to five years, potentially exhausting Russia’s ability to finance its full-scale war. Earlier in the week, on September 25, he floated the idea of converting the frozen funds into an interest-free loan of around 0 billion (€140 billion).

This stance places Berlin at odds with leaders such as French President Emmanuel Macron, who has raised concerns about the legality of such a move under international law. When Russia launched its invasion in 2022, the G7 froze roughly 0 billion of Russian central bank reserves, two-thirds of which are held by the Euroclear clearinghouse in Belgium. While Brussels has resisted outright confiscation, it has been using profits generated by the frozen assets to finance Ukraine’s defense and recovery through a billion G7 loan mechanism and separate EU initiatives.

Germany’s shift reflects mounting unease within Europe as the continent grapples with drone incursions, hybrid tactics, and the prolonged impact of three years of open warfare in Ukraine.

Speaking at the United Nations General Assembly on September 28, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov sought to downplay the risk of direct confrontation, insisting that Moscow had "no intention" of attacking European countries. At the same time, he warned that any act of aggression against Russia would meet with a "decisive response."