Bulgarian Exports to U.S. Set to Drop by a Third Under New Tariffs

New U.S. tariffs are expected to have a serious impact on Bulgarian exports and the national economy, with a projected drop of 32.8% in exports to the American market, according to Deputy Economy and Industry Minister Doncho Barbalov. This decline represents about 1.5% of Bulgaria's overall exports. In macroeconomic terms, the blow to GDP in 2025 is estimated at 0.35%, Barbalov stated.

The Deputy Minister explained that the average effective tariff rate Bulgarian goods will face under the new U.S. measures amounts to 12.51%, based on export data from 2024. Particularly vulnerable are exports in key product categories such as medical, surgical, and dental instruments, along with sunflower seeds—sectors that are likely to absorb the sharpest consequences of the newly introduced duties.

Barbalov also noted a specific feature of the U.S. tariff policy toward the European Union. The structure includes a two-tiered system: for goods previously subject to duties between 0% and 15%, the new flat rate is 15%. For products already facing tariffs above 15%, the rates remain unchanged. The EU is the only trading partner of the U.S. subject to this type of phased tariff escalation.