Bulgarian Analysts See Growing Chances of GERB-Peevski Axis Dominating 2026 Presidential Runoff

Sociologist Parvan Simeonov has suggested that the 2026 presidential runoff in Bulgaria could feature a contest between GERB’s candidate and a candidate backed by oligarch and leader of DPS-New Beginning Delyan Peevski. Speaking on bTV, Simeonov pointed out that the numbers alone make this scenario plausible: GERB’s nominee could easily secure around 600,000 votes, while a candidate supported by Peevski might attract over 500,000.

Simeonov noted that this potential runoff would mark a significant development in the political landscape. “One of the candidates in the second round will most likely be the representative of the ruling establishment. If Peevski’s influence continues to grow, there’s no reason his candidate couldn’t surpass 500,000 votes. If the third-place candidate receives fewer votes, the race could take an unexpected turn,” he commented.

Political analyst Hristo Panchugov, who also appeared on the program, emphasized that Bulgaria is already entering a de facto pre-election period. He pointed to growing challenges for traditional party figures to win such a race. According to him, the current political environment lacks individuals with both the political will and public trust necessary to run a successful campaign without causing major disturbances.

Simeonov raised a key strategic question: could a presidential candidate emerge who is not only capable of reaching the runoff but also able to bring together two very different electoral camps? On one side are voters aligned with figures like Ivelin Mihaylov, Kostadin Kostadinov, and Radostin Vassilev; on the other, supporters of Kiril Petkov, Asen Vassilev, Atanas Atanasov, Bozhidar Bozhanov, and Ivaylo Mirchev.

According to Simeonov, such a unifying figure would be hard to identify. In his view, the fragmentation of Bulgaria’s political spectrum makes it difficult to bridge the divide between nationalist and reformist voters.

He also offered what he described as a “natural prediction”: that Boyko Borissov, despite his public statements that he has no intention of running for president, may ultimately decide to enter the race, but only after evaluating the strength and profile of the other contenders.

Simeonov believes that the candidate representing the ruling parties is likely to be selected jointly by GERB and Peevski's Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS). However, Panchugov cautioned against assuming Peevski’s support will be a given in the runoff. Past elections have shown that candidates backed by him have not always been successful.

Panchugov also highlighted the crucial role of opposition unity. In past presidential elections, opposition forces have tended to rally behind a single candidate in the second round in an effort to defeat GERB’s nominee. This, he said, makes the choice of GERB’s candidate all the more delicate and strategically important.