Zelensky and Zaluzhnyi Neck and Neck in Ukraine’s Hypothetical Presidential Race

A recent poll conducted by the Sociological Research Centre SOCIS between June 6 and 11 suggests a close contest in a hypothetical upcoming Ukrainian presidential election between incumbent Volodymyr Zelensky and Ukrainian Ambassador to the UK and former Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi. According to the survey, 21.8% of respondents said they would vote for Zelensky, while 19.6% supported Zaluzhnyi. Notably, a significant portion of voters - 24.7% - remained undecided. Other candidates in the hypothetical race included former President Petro Poroshenko, intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov, and Kyiv Mayor Vitalii Klitschko.

When excluding the undecided voters, Zelensky’s share rises to 30.9%, with Zaluzhnyi close behind at 27.7%. The second-round polling shows Zaluzhnyi leading with 41.4% against Zelensky’s 27%, while 15.7% would reject both candidates. The survey sampled 2,000 Ukrainians through quota-stratified sampling and face-to-face interviews, carrying a margin of error of ±2.6%.

This data comes amid reports that SOCIS is linked to Petro Poroshenko’s former chief ideologist, Ihor Hryniv. Since the war escalated, major Ukrainian sociological groups have reportedly agreed to avoid publishing electoral polls during active combat, to prevent political polarization. Earlier SOCIS polling in February 2025 indicated that military figures like Zaluzhnyi and Budanov enjoyed rising popularity, with Zelensky maintaining second place at around 16% overall, or 22% among decided voters.

In a related June 2025 survey conducted by the Janus Institute for Strategic Studies and Forecasts, SOCIS, and the Barometer of Public Opinion, trust in security sector leaders was notably high. Valerii Zaluzhnyi commanded trust or partial trust from 71% of respondents, Defence Intelligence head Kyrylo Budanov had 55%, while President Zelensky was trusted by 49%. In comparison, Andrii Biletskyi, commander of the 3rd Assault Brigade, was trusted by 35%.

Meanwhile, many prominent politicians faced strong public distrust: around 80% distrusted former President Poroshenko, 85% distrusted Batkivshchyna leader Yuliia Tymoshenko, 65% distrusted Kyiv Mayor Klitschko, and 66% distrusted European Solidarity MP Oleksii Honcharenko.

This survey included 2,000 Ukrainians aged 18 and above from across the country, excluding areas under occupation or active conflict. It was conducted through in-person interviews, with a statistical margin of error of ±2.6%.