NATO Commits to 5% Defense Spending by 2035, Citing Russia as Long-Term Threat

NATO member states have adopted a new and more ambitious defense spending commitment, agreeing to raise their national defense budgets to 5% of GDP by 2035. The announcement came during a summit in The Hague, where alliance leaders unveiled a joint declaration highlighting Russia as the central long-term threat to Euro-Atlantic security. The decision reflects growing concern over global instability, mounting pressure from the United States, and the need for a coordinated response to persistent security challenges, especially the war in Ukraine.

The 5% target is a significant step up from NATO’s previous 2% guideline, which only 23 of the 32 members met in 2024. Under the new framework, at least 3.5% of national GDP will go directly to core military capabilities, aligned with NATO's defense planning objectives. The remaining 1.5% is designated for broader security-related needs, including critical infrastructure protection, civil preparedness, innovation, cyber defense, and strengthening the defense industrial base. Annual national plans outlining how each country will meet the target are now mandatory, and a midterm review is scheduled for 2029.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, speaking at the conclusion of the summit, said the increase makes the alliance both “stronger and fairer,” crediting the United States and its European partners for stepping up. “The decision we made today ensures our citizens are better protected. It is a new era of commitment,” Rutte stated. While this year’s summit declaration did not include an explicit condemnation of Russia’s actions in Ukraine, as was the case in the 2024 Washington summit, the alliance’s position remained clear: Russia is the main driver behind this strategic shift.

The declaration identified Russia by name as the long-term threat facing NATO, reiterating language used in previous communiqués under both the Biden and Trump administrations. Although there was no reference to China in this year's statement, the focus on Moscow was unequivocal. NATO leaders emphasized that the elevated defense spending is necessary to meet the strategic environment shaped by Russia’s aggressive posture and ongoing war against Ukraine.

Support for Ukraine remains central to the alliance’s policy. Aid provided to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, including weapons, equipment, and industrial support, will be counted toward the 5% GDP defense expenditure threshold. Rutte emphasized that keeping Ukraine in the fight was the alliance's most urgent priority. “Training, military aid, and financial streams must continue. This is not just about today - it’s about preventing Putin from ever trying this again,” he said.

He also revealed that Ukraine’s defense industry has around billion in spare capacity, and NATO is committed to tapping into it to sustain the war effort and support longer-term resilience. Rutte declined to predict specific battlefield outcomes but expressed optimism that the volume of support in 2025 would exceed last year’s billion in pledges.

Behind the scenes, the structure and timing of the summit were reportedly influenced by U.S. President Donald Trump. According to Politico, European officials tailored the event’s focus to match Trump’s push for increased defense commitments and ensured the 5% announcement would highlight his influence. Trump has consistently criticized European allies for underfunding their militaries and has long advocated for raising the defense spending bar.

According to NATO estimates, Poland currently leads the alliance in defense spending with 4.12% of its GDP allocated, followed by Estonia at 3.43% and the United States at 3.38%. Secretary General Rutte confirmed earlier this month that all NATO countries are on track to meet the original 2% target by next year.

The Hague declaration affirms NATO’s unity and reaffirms the alliance’s role in maintaining peace, security, and deterrence. It also outlines a path of long-term adaptation that includes not only military readiness but also resilience to hybrid threats, industrial scaling, and expanded partnerships in Europe and beyond.