Sofia Exchange: No Grounds for Sharp Price Hikes, Market Remains Stable

The CEO of the Sofia Commodity Exchange, Vasil Simov, dismissed speculation about any dramatic price hikes on the market, stating that current conditions do not support such developments. Speaking on market trends in agricultural goods such as wheat, corn, sunflower, and oil, Simov stressed that barring major geopolitical disruptions - especially wars - the market situation is expected to remain stable at least through the end of summer.

According to him, the recent global wheat harvest exceeded 806 million tonnes, driving down prices on leading exchanges in the U.S. and France by 10 to 13 percent over the past year. A similar trend is visible in the Black Sea region, including Russia, Ukraine, and Bulgaria. Bread wheat prices show no upward pressure, as the strong harvest is offsetting other market influences.

Corn prices are following a similar path. Though the bulk of the harvest is expected in September, projections already point to a bumper crop of over 1.27 billion tonnes globally. Simov noted a temporary price rise in Ukraine but expressed confidence that summer trends would bring levels back in line with last year - around 0 per tonne.

As for sunflower, current prices are slightly up compared to last year - about 0 per tonne now versus 0 back then. However, the upcoming harvest in September is expected to prompt a market correction. Simov predicts a return to around 0 per tonne, in line with last year's levels. The price of sunflower oil has also seen an uptick, with Rotterdam rates reaching ,200 per tonne, up approximately 14% year-on-year. Still, Simov believes that with the arrival of new supplies, prices will adjust.

The sugar market continues its downward trajectory, marking a second consecutive year of decline. Refined sugar prices have dropped by roughly 15-16%, driven by falling consumption even as production remains steady.

Oil markets also reflect a more moderate trend. Brent crude is currently trading at per barrel, down from last year. Simov noted a slight seasonal increase in recent weeks due to higher summer demand, but he emphasized that prices remain significantly lower than in the previous year, which is already being felt at the gas stations.

Simov firmly rejected fears of price spikes, stating that market fundamentals do not support such concerns. Even commodity categories not discussed in detail, such as metals, remain stable. His outlook was clear: unless major external shocks occur, markets are poised to stay calm in the months ahead.

Source: Nova TV