Ukraine's Sumy Oblast Prepares as 50,000 Russian Troops Mass at the Border

As Russia amasses 50,000 troops on Ukraine's border, Sumy Oblast is bracing for a possible large-scale offensive. Alarming signs of an imminent summer push have surfaced, with Moscow deploying combat-ready airborne troops and marines in what Ukrainian defense sources described as an effort to displace Kyiv’s forces. These developments follow Russian President Vladimir Putin’s May 22 order to establish a "security buffer zone" along the border, a move President Volodymyr Zelensky later said included 50,000 Russian troops “in the direction of Sumy.”

While Russian units have already seized some villages in Sumy Oblast through small offensive maneuvers, Kyiv’s soldiers and experts remain unsure about Moscow’s larger objectives. The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) has restricted journalists’ access to the region since Ukraine’s withdrawal from Kursk Oblast, and the military has shared little from the front lines. A spokesperson for the Ukrainian military command in Kursk declined to comment, saying they had “limited” ability to speak about the situation.

The warning of a renewed Russian push into Sumy comes two months after Ukraine withdrew from Kursk Oblast, including the critical logistics hub town of Sudzha. Following Kyiv’s costly operation there, Russian troops quickly seized the momentum, launching cross-border raids that disrupted Ukraine’s ability to reinforce and reorganize defenses in Sumy.

Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump is pushing hard for peace negotiations to end the conflict. Despite limited progress, Ukraine and Russia plan to meet again in Istanbul on June 2 to continue discussions.

On the ground in Sumy Oblast, Ukrainian soldiers are bracing for challenging days ahead. Many units are worn out after months of defending the Kursk salient against relentless Russian drone and glide bomb attacks. A Ukrainian defense source said holding Sumy Oblast would depend on Kyiv’s ability to reinforce the region despite its manpower issues.

Local officials confirmed on May 26 that Russian troops had captured four border villages: Novenke, Zhuravka, Veselivka, and Basivka. Using swift-moving quad bikes and small assault groups, Russian forces have advanced steadily, according to a deputy company commander with the 80th Air Assault Brigade, who goes by the callsign Third. He described the overall situation as “more or less normal (and) controlled,” despite constant drone strikes.

The Russian military has concentrated efforts on the areas around Zhuravka and Basivka and is also expanding assaults near Veselivka and Volodymyrivka. Despite taking heavy casualties, Moscow seems undeterred. State Border Guard Service spokesperson Andriy Demchenko told reporters that Russian forces appeared willing to accept significant losses to push ahead.

Analyst Emil Kastehelmi from the Finland-based Black Bird Group said Russia’s gradual progress has focused on capturing border villages, but he doesn’t expect Sumy to become a primary target of a major summer offensive. Instead, Moscow’s main effort is likely to remain in Donbas or in southeastern Zaporizhzhia, while raids in Sumy aim to drain Ukraine’s resources. Kastehelmi said it’s a “slow kind of offensive operation,” with border areas difficult to fortify and engineering equipment vulnerable to raids.

Kastehelmi noted that while Russia has captured more territory than local authorities admit, the pace is sluggish. He suggested that Moscow might be trying to secure a few more villages or prevent future Ukrainian counterattacks, rather than stage a major push. “It doesn’t really change the general situation if the Russians control just a small sector,” he said.

Amid these skirmishes, Sumy Oblast has been evacuating civilians. Governor Oleh Hryhorov said on May 19 that nearly 56,000 residents have been evacuated under mandatory orders. Three municipalities - Bilopillya, Vorozhba, and Nova Sloboda - were asked to evacuate, although authorities have yet to enforce those evacuations fully. A local official told reporters that the border areas remain calm for now, though only soldiers can confirm what’s happening there.

Commander Third and his unit in the 80th brigade said Russian troops remain present in significant numbers, keeping Ukrainian soldiers on high alert. Illia, a serviceman from the 80th brigade, said it was hard to know whether a large offensive would come soon, though he expected raids to continue. “There could be an offensive - there could not be as well,” he remarked.

The scale of Russia’s future plans in Sumy remains uncertain and, according to a source in Ukraine’s defense forces, depends on whether Moscow can secure the so-called “security buffer zone” that Putin ordered. “It is clear to us that if they manage to do this, they will go further,” the source said. “Because Russia’s overall goal has not changed - to occupy all of Ukraine.”

In broader developments, Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said on May 31 that Russia had stepped up assaults in the Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, and Donetsk oblasts. He highlighted Russia’s active offensive operations in Zaporizhzhia and noted that Ukrainian forces were inflicting “substantial losses” on Russian troops - claiming over 34,000 killed in May alone.

Syrskyi added that Ukrainian artillery, drones, and aviation were striking Russian forces before they could reach Ukrainian positions. While Russia’s main efforts remain in Donetsk - particularly around Pokrovsk, Toretsk, and Lyman - activity in Zaporizhzhia and Sumy has also increased.

Russian forces in Sumy have continued cross-border raids and sabotage missions, with Demchenko warning on May 29 that Russia had gathered enough troops in Kursk Oblast to launch a significant assault. Ukrainian officials also noted intensified fighting on the Kursk front, where Moscow has deployed elite units initially meant for other operations.

On April 26, Russia said it had completed a military operation to “liberate” Kursk Oblast from Ukrainian incursions. However, Ukrainian military sources said they still controlled parts of the area.

Sources:

• The Kyiv Independent
• Ukrainska Pravda
• RBC-Ukraine