Global Temperatures Poised to Shatter Records in Next Five Years

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has sounded the alarm in its latest Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update, warning that global temperatures are set to continue rising in the next five years, with a strong chance of record-breaking warmth by 2029.

The report, covering the period 2025-2029, outlines an 80% likelihood that at least one of these years will be the warmest ever recorded, surpassing the current record set in 2024. It also projects that temperatures in this timeframe will range from 1.2°C to 1.9°C above the average for 1850-1900, the baseline for pre-industrial levels.

The WMO, in a press release on Wednesday, stated that its forecast indicates that "global temperatures are expected to continue at or near record levels in the next five years," which would significantly increase climate-related risks and pose challenges for societies, economies, and sustainable development.

The report goes on to note that there is an 86% chance at least one year in the 2025-2029 window will be more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. This level of warming is already associated with severe climate impacts, including longer and more intense heatwaves, extreme rainfall and flooding, prolonged droughts, rapid melting of glaciers and polar ice, as well as rising sea levels.

In addition to these warnings, the report highlights a concerning trend: the probability of the five-year average warming exceeding 1.5°C has risen steadily. In this year’s report, the chance is pegged at 70%, compared to 47% in the 2024-2028 report and just 32% in the 2023-2027 outlook. These numbers underscore the accelerating pace of climate change and the growing risks it presents.

The WMO also points out that while the year 2023 did not see record rainfall in South Asia, the region has otherwise been unusually wet in recent years, a pattern expected to persist through the 2025-2029 period.

The Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update is an annual publication from the WMO, synthesizing predictions from the organization’s Global Producing Centres and other contributing climate centers. It serves as a crucial benchmark for understanding how the climate is shifting and what to expect in the years ahead.