Putin Does Not Want Peace, Aims to Seize 4 Ukrainian Regions by 2025

Russian leader Vladimir Putin is reportedly confident that his forces can secure full control of four Ukrainian Oblasts (regions) by the end of 2025, according to a Bloomberg report citing a source familiar with his views. This assertion comes ahead of a scheduled phone call with US President Donald Trump, during which Trump is expected to push for a resolution to the ongoing conflict.

Putin's confidence is said to stem from his perceived advantage along the contact line in Ukraine. As a result, he appears to be in no rush to negotiate a peace deal, Bloomberg states. "Putin is confident that his forces can break through Ukraine’s defences by the end of the year to take full control of four regions that he has claimed for Russia… That means the Russian president is unlikely to offer any meaningful concessions to Trump when the two leaders speak," the report quotes the source as saying.

Despite US efforts to broker a ceasefire, Putin remains resolute in his military objectives, Bloomberg adds. European officials are concerned that Trump may attempt to press for a settlement regardless, while Putin has shown no intention of making concessions. The Russian leader reportedly remains unperturbed by the prospect of further US sanctions, anticipating a prolonged conflict if necessary.

Meanwhile, sources close to the Kremlin suggest that Putin’s confidence in achieving battlefield success stands in contrast to Western assessments. European officials maintain that Russia, after enduring substantial losses over more than three years of fighting, lacks the capacity to achieve its objectives. This sentiment is reportedly echoed within the Russian military, where some personnel have expressed doubts about the feasibility of large-scale offensives given Ukraine's drone capabilities.

According to Bloomberg, US President Trump continues to advocate for a swift resolution to the war, now in its fourth year, and has promised to brief Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and certain NATO allies after his conversation with Putin. Nevertheless, the Russian leader appears steadfast, viewing any potential ceasefire talks as a strategic opportunity to further his territorial ambitions.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) asserts that the Kremlin has not been preparing Russian society or its information space for the possibility of a peace agreement with Ukraine. Instead, Russian officials have increasingly emphasised the need to continue the conflict until Moscow achieves its stated objectives.

According to ISW, the Kremlin has framed the conflict as essential to Russia’s national interests, justifying the prolonged military campaign as a necessary step to protect Russian-speaking populations in Ukraine and to secure territory deemed crucial for national security. Kremlin officials have also reiterated that the war will continue until Ukraine meets Russia’s demands, effectively dismissing the possibility of a near-term settlement.

On 18 May, a Kremlin-affiliated journalist released excerpts of a purportedly new interview with Putin, in which the Russian leader asserted that his military has sufficient personnel and equipment to achieve its goals. The interview, however, appears to include footage originally aired in the Kremlin-produced documentary "Russia.Kremlin.Putin.25 Years," released earlier this month.

In the interview, Putin reiterated his belief that any negotiations must address what he described as the "root causes" of the conflict, including the perceived need to protect Russian-speaking Ukrainians. This narrative aligns with previous Kremlin messaging aimed at rallying domestic support for continued military operations.

Meanwhile, ISW continues to assess that the Russian military is suffering unsustainable battlefield losses, compounded by economic pressures stemming from war-related expenditures and sanctions. ISW analysts warn that the Kremlin may face increasingly difficult strategic decisions by 2026 or 2027, as resources and manpower are further depleted.