Bulgaria's Inflation Expected to Rise Ahead of Euro Adoption

Inflation in Bulgaria is projected to rise ahead of the country’s euro adoption, as indicated in the Ministry of Finance’s latest spring Macroeconomic Forecast. The anticipated increase is largely driven by higher prices for services and food.

According to data based on the EU consumer basket, the average annual inflation rate in 2024 was recorded at 2.6%. After nearly two years of a steady decline in inflation, the trend reversed in the fourth quarter of last year, with prices climbing once again. The upward trend continued into the early months of 2025, spurred primarily by rising costs in services and energy goods, the Ministry of Finance reported.

For 2025, the Ministry forecasts a rise in average annual inflation to 3.6%. Services are expected to exert the most significant upward pressure on prices, followed by food. Conversely, energy goods are likely to help mitigate inflation, as international crude oil prices are predicted to decrease.

Despite the rise in prices for services and food this year, the Ministry does not foresee substantial price hikes after the country officially adopts the euro. For 2026, the average annual inflation is projected to decline to 2.2%, with services and food remaining the primary contributors to inflation, the report concludes.