Bulgaria's Military Intelligence: Russia's Aggressive Stance Intensifies in the Black Sea Region

According to Bulgaria's Military Intelligence Service report for 2023, Russia remains the dominant destabilizing force in global security. The document highlights that the global security environment in 2024 is marked by the militarization of international relations, the expansion of crisis situations, and the erosion of international legal frameworks.

The report identifies Russia's actions as a major threat to regional and global stability, with the re-election of Vladimir Putin reinforcing a force-based approach in Russian politics. The Kremlin continues to employ hybrid methods to influence international relations, particularly targeting the Euro-Atlantic community and attempting to sway electoral outcomes in European nations. Russia’s ambition to regain influence in its near abroad continues, although regional organizations led by Moscow face challenges.

The Military Intelligence Service also noted that Russia has been restricting freedom of navigation and air traffic in the Black Sea, declaring long-term "dangerous zones." Despite these restrictions, Russia’s naval forces have limited their ability to exert broader influence.

Regarding Ukraine, the report points to Putin’s persistent territorial ambitions, which have exacerbated violence and led to widespread destruction. The ongoing combat, including missile strikes and UAV attacks, has severely damaged Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and other critical systems. Additionally, Russia’s use of nuclear threats remains a key element of its foreign policy.

The report warns that regardless of the outcome of the ongoing war in Ukraine, Moscow’s aggressive policies will continue, particularly in the Black Sea. Although no direct military threats to neighboring countries are currently apparent, the document highlights a high risk of new armed conflicts in the medium term, especially for Moldova, Georgia, and possibly Armenia, should Moscow’s aggressive stance persist.

Concerning the Western Balkans, the Military Intelligence Service acknowledges ongoing tensions, despite regional countries’ aspirations for EU integration. Albania has made progress, while North Macedonia has stalled in its negotiations. The report mentions that Macedonian authorities have not implemented essential constitutional changes needed for EU accession talks, focusing instead on international support for delaying amendments. Meanwhile, anti-Bulgarian rhetoric continues.

In Serbia, political unrest and protests have heightened pressure on the government in Belgrade. Serbia faces the challenge of balancing public dissatisfaction, fulfilling EU commitments regarding strategic raw materials, avoiding US sanctions, and maintaining ties with Russia. The report indicates that international intervention has prevented the escalation of separatist rhetoric in Bosnia and Herzegovina, though tensions in the region remain.

In summary, the report paints a picture of growing instability in several regions, with Russia’s aggressive actions in the Black Sea and broader international issues continuing to pose significant challenges to security and peace.