Russia and Balkan Instability: Top Security Threats to Bulgaria According to National Security Agency

Russia and the volatile situation in the Western Balkans are identified as the primary threats to Bulgaria’s national security in the 2024 Annual Report by the State Agency for National Security (SANS). The report highlights the increasing pressure on Bulgarian communities in the region and a rise in hybrid threats, including espionage, information warfare, and cyberattacks that pose direct risks to the country's national interests.

The Kremlin's actions are described as the "main generator" of both regional and global threats, directly impacting Bulgaria. Russia is amplifying its use of a multifaceted hybrid strategy, combining military provocations, nuclear weapon threats, espionage, economic leverage—especially in the energy sector—disinformation campaigns, and cyberattacks. Notably, in 2024, two Russian intelligence officers operating under false identities were discovered and expelled from Bulgaria, and a Bulgarian civil servant was arrested for providing sensitive information to Russian agents. Furthermore, 19 more individuals linked to Russian intelligence activities were banned from entering Bulgaria, and ongoing investigations into espionage cases, including the prosecution of five Bulgarian citizens in the UK for espionage, are being pursued.

Rising Threats in the Balkans

The situation in the Western Balkans remains a significant concern, with the region continuing to face destabilizing internal and external factors that threaten Bulgaria's security. SANS points out that the region’s instability is driven by Russian influence, the rise of extreme nationalism, and the erosion of democratic principles in some countries. Organized crime, corruption, illegal migration, and radicalization also contribute to the region's volatility. These factors pose a growing risk to Bulgaria’s national interests.

The report also stresses that Bulgarian communities in some neighboring Balkan countries are facing heightened challenges. There has been an escalation of hate speech, discrimination, and efforts to suppress pro-Bulgarian organizations. Additionally, anti-Bulgarian information campaigns, attempts to erase Bulgarian cultural and historical heritage, and the manipulation of history continue to be troubling trends. Moreover, foreign powers, including Russia, are increasingly using soft power tactics—such as religion, culture, and education—to sway public opinion in the Balkans.

Increased Migratory and Extremist Risks

The ongoing instability in the region also raises concerns about the potential for increased migration flows into Bulgaria, alongside the possibility of extremist networks gaining ground in the Balkans. This combination of factors significantly amplifies the risks to Bulgaria’s security.

Black Sea Tensions and Environmental Risks

The war in Ukraine is transforming the Black Sea into a high-risk zone for Bulgaria, with growing threats to shipping and aviation security due to the use of electronic warfare and attacks on critical infrastructure. Additionally, the conflict exacerbates the risks of transboundary pollution, particularly near nuclear plants and oil facilities. The use of Russia's "shadow fleet" for the illegal export of energy resources in the region also presents a significant threat to Bulgaria’s security.

Cybersecurity and Disinformation Threats

The digital front remains an ongoing battleground for cyberattacks targeting state institutions, energy infrastructure, hospitals, and transport systems. SANS reports that artificial intelligence and social media are being actively exploited to disseminate disinformation and promote Russian propaganda. The main sources of these cyber threats are entities linked to Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran.

SANS' Preventive Measures

In response to these rising threats, SANS has put in place a range of operational and preventive measures. These include intelligence briefings for senior officials, counterespionage actions, and training programs to enhance counterintelligence awareness within Bulgaria’s state institutions. The agency emphasizes that prevention and international cooperation will remain central priorities in 2025 as it works to safeguard Bulgaria’s national security.