Russia’s Growing Influence in Gagauzia Threatens Moldova’s Stability

Evghenia Gutul, the governor of Gagauzia, an autonomous region in Moldova, was arrested at Chisinau airport on March 25 while attempting to travel to Moscow. The Moldovan authorities had been investigating her involvement in two criminal cases—one related to electoral fraud and vote-buying during her 2023 election and another concerning her participation in the illegal financing of a political party by an organized crime group, a case which has been under investigation since 2024. The crime group in question is led by Ilan Shor, an oligarch who fled Moldova in 2019 after being convicted for stealing a billion dollars in a banking fraud. Since then, Shor has emerged as a significant figure pushing Russian interests in Moldova.

Gutul's arrest follows a pattern of political interference in Gagauzia, with Shor using money and political silence to maintain control over the region. Gutul, a former political outsider, became the Bashkan of Gagauzia with Shor’s backing, a relationship that has allowed the Kremlin to gain a foothold in this part of Moldova. The region's political stance has proven crucial for Russian influence, especially in the context of Moldova's European Union aspirations. In a 2024 referendum, Gagauzia demonstrated more pro-Russian sentiments than the separatist Transnistria region.

Following her detention, Gutul has framed her arrest as political persecution, calling on Russia and Turkey to intervene and pressure Moldova for her release. A protest in Moscow, organized in her support, included inflammatory imagery, such as posters depicting Moldova’s President Maia Sandu in a Nazi uniform. The Moldovan government responded sarcastically, praising the protests for teaching Russians how to protest.

The situation in Gagauzia highlights Moldova’s vulnerability to external influences, particularly Russia, which continues to destabilize the country through political proxies like Shor. Despite the ongoing attempts to manipulate Gagauzia, Mihail Sirkeli, a journalist from the region, argued that the situation has not yet escalated to the point of significant unrest, as was seen in Crimea and Donbas. Gutul’s arrest, however, may be used to bolster Kremlin propaganda that Russian speakers in Moldova are being oppressed, despite the country’s inclusive policies for national minorities.

The Gagauz, a Turkic-speaking Orthodox ethnic group, have historically had connections to Bulgaria. Many moved to Bessarabia in the 19th century alongside the Bessarabian Bulgarians, following the collapse of the Ottoman Empire. Today, the Gagauz continue to live in Moldova, Bulgaria, Romania, and Turkey. While they have historically been influenced by both Russia and Turkey, the Kremlin has recently used their political discontent to further its strategic interests in Moldova. This complex relationship between the Gagauz, the Moldovan government, and external powers underscores the delicate balance Moldova must maintain in its pursuit of EU integration while managing Russian influence.