Bulgaria’s Pension Spending to Surpass 11% of GDP for the First Time

Pension spending in Bulgaria is projected to surpass 11% of the country’s estimated gross domestic product (GDP) for the first time in 2025. This is outlined in the draft budget of the State Social Security, which is set to be discussed at an upcoming meeting of the National Council for Tripartite Cooperation, alongside the budgets for the National Health Insurance Fund and the state.

In 2024, pension expenditures accounted for 10.7% of GDP, but this figure is expected to rise to 11.2% next year. The average pension is anticipated to exceed 975 leva, marking an increase of nearly 10.5% compared to the previous year. Real pension growth is projected at 7.8%, with annual inflation estimated at 2.4%. Meanwhile, the so-called replacement ratio, which measures the extent to which pensions compensate for lost wage income, is expected to remain just over 53.5%, similar to last year.

The 2025 budget proposal foresees a deficit of over 11.7 billion leva in the Pensions Fund, more than 92 million in the General Sickness and Maternity Fund, and just over 13 million in the Unemployment Fund. However, a surplus of 329 million leva is expected in the "Workplace Accident and Occupational Disease" fund.