US Signals Possible Military Response if Russia Disrupts Ukraine Peace Talks

US Vice President JD Vance has indicated that Washington may impose sanctions and potentially take military action against Russia if President Vladimir Putin refuses to negotiate a peace deal ensuring Ukraine's long-term independence. Speaking on February 13, Vance emphasized that sending US troops to Ukraine remains "on the table" should Moscow fail to engage in talks in good faith. His comments marked a stronger stance compared to US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who recently suggested that Washington would not commit forces.

Vance underscored that the US has both economic and military leverage over Russia, while also hinting at an unexpected outcome in ongoing diplomatic efforts. He stated that Trump is approaching negotiations with an open mind, aiming to explore all possible options for a resolution. However, Vance acknowledged that it is too early to determine the final territorial arrangements or the security guarantees Western allies may extend to Kyiv. He suggested that these details would be worked out during the negotiation process and that a potential agreement could surprise many observers.

Meanwhile, French President Emmanuel Macron described Trump's return to the White House as an "electroshock" that should push Europe to take greater responsibility for its security and Ukraine's future. In an interview with the Financial Times, Macron stressed that only Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky can negotiate on behalf of Ukraine and warned against any peace settlement resembling capitulation. He also called for Europe to strengthen its defense and economy, suggesting that the European Union should rethink its fiscal and monetary policies. Macron acknowledged a shift in US foreign policy priorities and agreed with Trump's stance that Europe must bear a greater burden for Ukraine's security.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio reinforced Trump's position, stating that the administration seeks a complete resolution to the war rather than a temporary ceasefire. Speaking on the Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show, Rubio noted that Trump is looking for a comprehensive solution and that any potential ceasefire would be a stepping stone toward a permanent peace agreement. He stressed that the US remains committed to Ukraine's independence but signaled that European nations should lead efforts in securing Ukraine's long-term stability.

As diplomatic efforts continue, Trump announced plans for high-level talks between US, Ukrainian, and Russian officials in Saudi Arabia next week. The meeting, which will not involve Trump or Putin directly, is expected to focus on potential pathways to ending the war. Trump described the conflict as "horrible" and "vicious," reiterating that negotiations should be aimed at finding a resolution that all sides can accept. Previously, Trump suggested he might meet with Putin in Saudi Arabia, though Ukraine has insisted that it must be a full participant in any talks determining its future.

Amid these diplomatic developments, a US Air Force plane carrying Secretary of State Rubio and Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Jim Risch was forced to return to Washington due to a technical malfunction. The aircraft, a modified Boeing 757, experienced a cockpit windscreen issue approximately 90 minutes after departing Joint Base Andrews. The delay raised concerns about whether Rubio would be able to attend a scheduled meeting with Vance and Zelensky at the Munich Security Conference.

Meanwhile, reports indicate that Russia has replenished its 2024 tank losses through the production and refurbishment of over 1,500 tanks and nearly 2,800 infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers. However, analysts warn that Moscow could face future challenges due to potential shortages of spare parts and deteriorating Soviet-era stockpiles. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has assessed that while Russia has managed to replace most of its lost armored vehicles, ongoing military expansion efforts could strain its capacity to sustain operations in the long term.

Estonia's Foreign Intelligence Service has also expressed concerns that Russia is not only maintaining its military efforts in Ukraine but is also preparing for a potential future conflict with NATO. The ISW noted that Russian forces have increasingly relied on infantry-led assaults due to equipment constraints, raising questions about their ability to sustain prolonged engagements. Ukrainian forces continue to target Russian energy and military infrastructure as part of ongoing efforts to disrupt Moscow’s war capabilities.

Sources:

• The Wall Street Journal
• Ukrainska Pravda
• Financial Times
• AP
• ISW