Bulgarians Among Europe's Biggest Trump Supporters, Yet Favor Closer Ties with Russia

A recent survey conducted in 14 European countries, including 11 EU member states, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and Ukraine, reveals that Bulgarians are among the strongest supporters of Donald Trump in Europe. The study, titled "Transatlantic Twilight: European Public Opinion and Trump's Long Shadow," was carried out by YouGov, Datapraxis, and Norstat in November 2024 at the request of the European Council on Foreign Relations. The results indicate that 26% of Bulgarians believe Trump could swiftly bring peace to Ukraine, with another 15% considering it somewhat likely, despite the lack of concrete details about his approach. No other surveyed country exhibits such conviction, though Hungarians (17% and 28%), Romanians (14% and 22%), and Ukrainians (4% and 32%) follow closely behind.

The survey highlights Bulgaria's position as one of the most skeptical nations regarding Ukraine’s fight against Russia. Only 9% of respondents support the idea of Ukraine continuing its military resistance—a figure lower than in any other surveyed country. Nearly half of Bulgarians (47%) believe the EU should pressure Kyiv into negotiations without insisting on NATO membership as a prerequisite. This places Bulgaria just behind Hungary, whose leadership is widely regarded as the most pro-Russian within the EU.

Another striking finding is the perception of international alliances. In Bulgaria, the United States is viewed less as an ally and more as a necessary partner for strategic cooperation. This aligns with a broader European trend of pragmatic rather than ideological engagement with Trump's America. The study’s authors, foreign policy experts Jana Puglierin, Arturo Varvelli, and Pawel Zerka, emphasize that European leaders must navigate increasing divergences between the EU and the US, particularly as Trump pursues unilateral policies. The former US president has previously described the EU as an "enemy" and criticized its regulatory policies, climate ambitions, and approach to free speech.

Bulgarians' opinions on Trump’s victory reflect a broader divide across Europe. In Bulgaria, 28% see his return as beneficial for their country, 45% believe it is good for the world, and over 47% think it is a positive outcome for Americans. These numbers are similar in Hungary and Romania. However, sentiment shifts westward, with two-thirds of respondents in Germany and Denmark regarding his victory as a negative development. Far-right supporters across Europe are Trump's strongest backers, though opinions vary within different nationalist movements. While only a small portion of voters for parties like Fidesz, Law and Justice, or Brothers of Italy view his reelection negatively, a more significant share of supporters of Alternative for Germany and France’s National Rally express concerns about its impact on their countries.

Economic factors could influence these attitudes. The study warns that Trump's policies, particularly potential tariffs and restrictions on European businesses, may harm the same nationalist-leaning voters currently celebrating his return. If such measures lead to economic difficulties, their enthusiasm could fade.

Regarding Russia, Bulgarian respondents show a distinctive viewpoint compared to other European nations. Sixteen percent view Russia as an ally with shared goals and values—nearly 50% more than those who see the US in the same light. An additional 41% consider Russia a "necessary partner," despite its military aggression against Ukraine. Over the past six months, Bulgarian confidence in a Ukrainian victory has plummeted from 13% in May to just 4% in November. Meanwhile, those convinced of a Russian victory have risen from 16% to 27%. The largest portion—50%—believe the war should end in a compromise. Furthermore, 56% assign at least some blame to Ukraine for the conflict, with 12% solely blaming Kyiv and 17% believing it bears most of the responsibility.

These divisions could shape Bulgaria's foreign policy stance in the future. The survey suggests that once a peace agreement is reached between Kyiv and Moscow, some European governments—especially in countries like Bulgaria and Hungary—may seek to restore relations with Russia as if the war had never happened. This could create tensions with nations like Germany and Poland, which are expected to take a harder stance.

In the broader European context, the findings underscore the potential for strategic, economic, and political challenges under Trump's "America First" approach. European leaders may find themselves forced to negotiate carefully with Washington while maintaining unity within the EU. Some countries, including Germany, France, and Poland, are already exploring alternative diplomatic frameworks. Poland, for instance, is working with Nordic countries and the UK to strengthen military support for Ukraine. However, the study warns against measures that could accelerate EU fragmentation, emphasizing that intergovernmental cooperation should reinforce, rather than undermine, the bloc's institutions.

Bulgarians also stand out as the most pessimistic regarding the EU’s long-term future. A quarter of respondents believe the union will cease to exist in 20 years, while another 28% see its dissolution as highly probable. The study’s authors stress that European policymakers must anticipate growing challenges and avoid internal divisions that could weaken the bloc’s influence on the global stage. They argue that rather than seeking privileged relationships with Trump, national leaders should prioritize collective bargaining to ensure Europe’s strategic interests remain protected.

Sources:

• Dnevnik
• YouGov
• Datapraxis
• Norstat