Gas Supplies Resume in Transnistria After Month-Long Crisis, But Uncertainty Remain

EU | February 4, 2025, Tuesday // 09:47|  views

Gas supplies to Transnistria have resumed after a month-long disruption, restoring heating to apartments in the breakaway region. While hot water is not yet available everywhere, the situation has improved following the provision of EU funding. The European Commission allocated 64 million euros, covering ten days of gas supply for the territory, which is home to around 350,000 people. Transnistria’s self-proclaimed leader, Vadim Krasnoselsky, expressed gratitude to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen for the financial assistance.

The gas crisis began on January 1 when Russia’s state-controlled energy giant Gazprom halted supplies to Moldova, citing unresolved debt issues. However, Ukraine had already announced it would stop allowing Russian gas transit through its territory at the start of the year. Moscow insisted that Kyiv’s decision and Chisinau’s refusal to recognize its debt were responsible for the disruption. Gazprom claims Moldova owes $709 million, but Chisinau only acknowledges a much smaller debt of $8.6 million.

For decades, Transnistria received Russian gas without payment, with the debt accumulating to an estimated $11.1 billion. While Gazprom charged Moldova for its gas supply, it provided free gas to Transnistria, which used it for domestic needs and to generate electricity for both sides of the Dniester River. The region’s economy relied on these subsidized energy supplies, allowing local businesses to maintain competitiveness and keeping public utilities at artificially low prices.

Moldova has since shifted away from dependence on Russian gas, securing alternative supplies from European markets. However, Transnistria remained reliant on Russian deliveries, which were abruptly cut off at the beginning of the year. The resulting energy crisis forced authorities to shut down industrial enterprises, disconnect central heating in residential buildings, and declare a state of emergency. The Moldovan State District Power Plant, which previously supplied 80% of Moldova’s electricity, had to transition to coal to continue operations.

As an immediate measure, Moldova agreed to provide Transnistria with 3 million cubic meters of gas on February 1 as a temporary loan, which must be repaid by March 2025. Krasnoselsky described this as "technical assistance," claiming it was necessary to maintain pipeline pressure rather than supply heating to residents. He also accused Chisinau of delaying EU-funded gas shipments and called for von der Leyen’s intervention to expedite the process.

Despite the temporary resolution, Moscow continues to frame the gas crisis as a consequence of actions taken by Ukraine and Moldova. Russian Foreign Ministry official Alexey Polischuk acknowledged that gas deliveries had resumed but stressed that a long-term solution was still needed. He also highlighted that Transnistria, where about 220,000 residents hold Russian passports, had been on the brink of a humanitarian disaster.

Some analysts suggest that Moscow deliberately cut off gas supplies to Transnistria to create political instability in Moldova ahead of upcoming parliamentary elections. With Moldova now forced to buy electricity from Romania at nearly twice the previous cost, energy price hikes could fuel public dissatisfaction and weaken the pro-European government of President Maia Sandu. The opposition has already accused the authorities of mishandling the crisis.

At the same time, the crisis has led to an unusual rapprochement between Chisinau and the breakaway region. More than 90% of Transnistrians hold Moldovan citizenship, and the Moldovan parliament had previously adopted a law granting Transnistria autonomy within Moldova. The EU has also provided Moldova with a 30-million-euro grant to buy gas and electricity for the region, further increasing Chisinau’s involvement in the territory’s affairs.

Moscow has long aimed to influence Moldova’s political trajectory through Transnistria. In 2003, the Kremlin proposed the "Kozak memorandum," which envisioned Moldova as a neutral federation with Transnistria and Gagauzia having veto power over national decisions. The plan failed, but Russia has continued to push for a resolution that ensures its influence over Moldova. In 2021, Moscow encouraged Tiraspol to initiate negotiations on a settlement, but Chisinau ignored the proposal.

If reintegration were to occur, Moldova would face significant challenges. Integrating Transnistria would strain the country’s already fragile economy, as tariffs in the region would have to be raised to match those on the right bank of the Dniester. Additionally, the inclusion of approximately 300,000 Transnistrian voters—many of whom oppose EU integration—could shift Moldova’s political balance in favor of pro-Russian parties.

Another issue is the presence of Russian troops in Transnistria and the large ammunition depots they guard. Chisinau wants the Russian military to leave and the weapons stockpiles to be dismantled, but Moscow insists that any withdrawal must be negotiated. If Moldova moves toward reintegration, it will likely be forced to engage in talks with Russia over these security concerns.

For now, the crisis has not been fully resolved, and questions remain about the sustainability of gas supplies to Transnistria. While EU assistance has temporarily alleviated the situation, Chisinau faces tough decisions on how to manage the breakaway region without further destabilizing the country. Meanwhile, Moscow continues to use Transnistria as a political tool, keeping Moldova’s future uncertain.

Sources:

  • Moldova Live
  • Carnegie Politika
  • TASS
  • The Kyiv Independent

Tags: moldova, gas, Transnistria, Russia

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