Putin’s Stance on Ukraine Peace Deal Fuels Concerns of Future Violations

The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) has rejected an amendment put forward by Ukrainian MP Oleksandr Merezhko, which sought to label Russian President Vladimir Putin a terrorist. The amendment, co-authored by Merezhko and three other Ukrainian lawmakers, aimed to hold Putin accountable for acts of terrorism committed against civilians. The proposal was part of a larger resolution titled "Europe's Commitment to a Just and Sustainable Peace in Ukraine," which was scheduled for consideration on 30 January. The proposal, along with others, had been submitted the day before.

Despite the amendment's inclusion in initial discussions, it was noticeably absent from the final list of proposals. In a written response, the PACE Secretariat explained that designating a head of state as a terrorist was deemed offensive and inappropriate for an official Assembly document. Merezhko expressed his disagreement, emphasizing that the term "terrorist" holds legal significance, especially since the Assembly had already recognized Russia as a terrorist state. He criticized the decision as political censorship, arguing that it was not the Secretariat's role to determine what was offensive, and that democratic processes should allow members to accept or reject amendments.

In addition to this controversy, the PACE session also discussed Georgia’s credentials. Although the Assembly ultimately ratified them, it imposed sanctions and demands on Georgia, leading the country to announce its withdrawal from PACE. The Secretariat's stance was seen as supportive of Georgia, and there was a lengthy debate before the final resolution was reached.

Meanwhile, in Romania, air-raid warnings were issued for the second consecutive night due to Russian drone activity near the border with Ukraine. On the night of 29-30 January, the Ministry of National Defence of Romania reported monitoring UAVs in Ukrainian airspace, prompting an RO-Alert message to residents in the northern Tulcea district. The message, issued around 04:00, warned that drones could fall from the sky, and residents were advised to seek shelter. The alert lasted for 90 minutes. Romanian fighter jets were scrambled, though no drones entered Romanian airspace. The Defence Ministry assured continued monitoring of the situation.

The attacks from Russia also continued across Ukraine, with Ukrainian forces intercepting 37 out of 81 Shahed drones launched by Russia on 29 January. The drones caused significant damage across several regions, including Sumy, where a drone strike on an apartment building resulted in casualties. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that several regions, including Chernihiv and Poltava, were affected. Although many drones were intercepted, some hit residential buildings and industrial facilities, causing damage to vehicles, buildings, and infrastructure.

In addition to these developments, discussions are reportedly taking place within the European Union regarding the potential resumption of gas imports from Russia. Supporters argue that it could lower energy prices and incentivize Russia to negotiate a ceasefire. However, the idea has faced strong opposition, particularly from Eastern European countries, which have worked for years to reduce their reliance on Russian energy. Some officials fear that reviving Russian gas imports would make European alternatives less competitive and hinder efforts to reduce dependence on Moscow. Despite the controversy, the EU’s stance on Russian liquefied natural gas remains undecided, as it prepares for new sanctions targeting various sectors, including aluminum and banking.

On the battlefield, a Russian drone attack in Sumy left four people dead, with rescue operations still ongoing. The strike caused extensive damage to a multi-storey building, destroying multiple apartments and balconies and injuring several others, including a child. The attack also damaged over 20 vehicles. Local authorities continue to provide updates as search and rescue efforts progress.

In a broader analysis, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggests that Putin's recent comments on the legitimacy of the Ukrainian government and potential peace agreements could create conditions for Russia to violate any future agreements. Putin has claimed that any peace deal made with Ukraine would be invalid unless Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky rescinds a 2022 decree banning negotiations. ISW analysts argue that this rhetoric sets a legal precedent that could be used to justify violating agreements. Putin's long-standing theory of victory relies on the assumption that Western support for Ukraine will wane, and some analysts believe that even if an agreement were reached, Russia would likely disregard it based on claims of invalidity or illegitimacy.

Sources:

• Ukrainska Pravda
• ISW
• Financial Times
• Digi24
• Telegram