Russia Shifts Tactics on Ukraine Front, Focuses on Drones and Strategic Encirclements

Ukraine | January 29, 2025, Wednesday // 10:53|  views

The intensity of Russian military operations on the frontlines has gradually decreased, though it still remains at a high level, according to DeepState's analysis. The most intense period of attacks occurred in the latter half of December, with a slight reduction in pace following the New Year. Despite facing significant losses, Russian forces are reportedly able to replenish their units relatively quickly. DeepState documented the number of Russian attacks over the past few months, noting that in November, there were 5,205 assaults, which increased to 6,247 in December. By January 27, the total had dropped to 4,304 attacks.

The Pokrovsk front remains a major area of focus, accounting for 44% of Russian assaults in January. Other significant fronts include Kursk, with 13% of attacks, and Lyman, contributing 10%. The situation around Pokrovsk is particularly dire, as Russian forces continue to use fog as cover for repeated attacks on Ukrainian positions. They are bypassing Pokrovsk to the south, aiming to approach Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and have moved toward Kotlyne and Udachne, located along the Mezhova-Pokrovsk road. Russian forces are seeking to capture nearby villages to potentially encircle Pokrovsk.

Meanwhile, Russia has reported a large-scale Ukrainian drone attack on nine of its regions, claiming to have downed over 100 drones. The Russian Ministry of Defence provided details on the incident, stating that 104 drones were destroyed, with significant numbers downed over Kursk, Bryansk, Smolensk, and Tver oblasts. Tver's governor reported a lower number of 29 drones, and Bryansk's governor claimed 33 drones were downed, with a mix of military and special forces involvement. This attack triggered the implementation of an emergency plan at Kazan Airport and restrictions at Pulkovo Airport in St. Petersburg. Additionally, reports indicated that Ukrainian drones attacked an oil refinery in Nizhny Novgorod, resulting in a fire.

In a separate development, Russian forces targeted the port infrastructure in the Izmail district of Odesa Oblast during the night of January 28-29. The Ukrainian military's air defence units reportedly worked hard to mitigate the damage, although several buildings were hit. Fortunately, no casualties were reported.

As part of efforts to enhance its unmanned systems capabilities, Russia has been forming separate regiments for drone operations. The 7th Separate Unmanned Systems Reconnaissance Strike Regiment, based in Russia's Central Military District, was established with 1,342 personnel, 94% of whom were already trained by April 2024. This regiment includes strike and reconnaissance drone battalions and logistical support units. The creation of these specialized units is part of broader efforts by the Russian Ministry of Defence to centralize its drone operations and improve the efficiency of its unmanned systems.

The Russian government has indicated that it plans to fully establish the Unmanned Systems Forces within the Russian military by the third quarter of 2025. These developments are part of a larger restructuring process aimed at improving the efficiency and capabilities of Russian forces, particularly in unmanned technologies. Defense analysts suggest that, if successful, these changes could significantly augment Russia's drone support capabilities, though their effectiveness will depend on the execution of the reforms and available resources.

Meanwhile, Russian forces have also been active in Syria, with the first official delegation arriving on January 28 to discuss military base usage. The Russian military continues to evacuate assets from the Port of Tartus as part of ongoing negotiations with Syria. Further military activities include escalations in Ukraine, where Russian forces have recently advanced near Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and other key locations. Russian efforts to militarize society include appointing war veterans to key government positions as part of a broader strategy to consolidate power.

Sources:

  • DeepState
  • Ukrainska Pravda
  • Telegram
  • ISW

Tags: Ukraine, Russia, drones

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