400,000 Casualties and No End in Sight: Can Ukraine Survive Another Year?

Ukraine's ongoing war against Russia’s full-scale invasion, now approaching its third year, has reached a critical juncture, writes The Washington Post. The country is losing ground, personnel, and time, with the coming weeks likely to determine whether it can preserve its sovereignty within pre-2022 borders, or if Russian President Vladimir Putin will emerge emboldened in his territorial ambitions. The implications of this conflict extend beyond Ukraine, challenging the credibility of the United States and NATO. Both pledged support to Ukraine following the invasion, vowing assistance “as long as it takes” to counter Russia’s aggression.

Ukraine's non-membership in NATO means this commitment is not formalized by treaty, relying instead on political will in Washington and European capitals. Any withdrawal of support would signal a lack of resolve and undermine Western credibility, a message that could embolden China as it considers its stance on Taiwan. Ukrainians have shown immense resilience against Russia's attempt to subsume their nation, but their efforts have been hindered by delayed Western support for advanced weaponry, including fighter jets and long-range missiles. These delays allowed Russia to strengthen its hold on the battlefield.

In the Donbas region, Russian forces have made incremental gains, reclaiming more ground than at any time since the invasion began. Currently, about 20% of Ukraine’s territory remains under Russian control, with advances continuing westward around Pokrovsk and Kurakhove. In the north, Ukrainian troops who had briefly occupied parts of Russia’s Kursk region have lost nearly 40% of the land they captured during their summer offensive. Russian forces, bolstered by North Korean reinforcements, are steadily advancing, despite suffering significant casualties.

Ukraine faces immense losses in manpower, with estimates of over 400,000 soldiers killed or wounded considered conservative. Exhaustion among troops has led to increasing desertions from the front lines. The government has lowered the draft age from 27 to 25, yet pressure persists to include men as young as 18. President Volodymyr Zelensky remains reluctant, balancing concerns about depleting a younger generation and the lack of equipment for new recruits. These personnel challenges highlight the severe strain on Ukraine’s ability to sustain its defense.

Compounding these difficulties is the looming inauguration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, who has vowed to end the conflict quickly but has provided few specifics. Trump has suggested a ceasefire along existing front lines, the deployment of European peacekeepers, and a moratorium on Ukraine’s NATO membership for 20 years. However, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has already dismissed such proposals, leaving the path forward uncertain.

European allies, meanwhile, are increasingly fatigued by the conflict, which has drained military hardware reserves and strained political unity. In Germany, Chancellor Olaf Scholz faces a tough reelection campaign, while far-right parties gaining ground across Europe are more amenable to Russia’s interests. Some European leaders are reportedly leaning toward a “land-for-peace” approach, particularly if U.S. support diminishes.

Despite the urgency to end the war, a hasty settlement could have dire consequences. Any deal that cedes Ukrainian territory would reward Putin’s aggression and likely embolden future attempts at expansion once Russia rebuilds its arsenal. Such an outcome would not only leave Ukraine vulnerable to renewed attacks but could also erode trust in Western allies, fostering resentment among Ukrainians whose lives and communities have been devastated.

Time is slipping away, and Ukraine’s ability to endure another year of conflict is doubtful. However, a poorly negotiated peace would risk repeating the mistakes of the past, undermining global stability and emboldening authoritarian regimes. The stakes of this war extend far beyond Ukraine, making it a fight that neither Ukraine nor its Western backers can afford to lose.

Source: The Washington Post