Grozev: Putin Could Accept NATO Expansion in Exchange for U.S. Base Withdrawals

Investigative journalist Christo Grozev has suggested that Russian President Vladimir Putin might agree to Ukraine joining NATO under certain conditions, such as the removal of U.S. military bases from Eastern Europe. Speaking in an interview with Ukraine’s "Channel 24," Grozev indicated that Putin is aware of an impending ultimatum from the U.S. and is attempting to pressure former U.S. President Donald Trump into excluding Ukraine’s NATO membership as part of any negotiation.

According to Grozev, Putin’s current stance is likely not Moscow’s final position. He explained that Trump, before his election, had repeatedly expressed his willingness to end the war in Ukraine. However, after winning the presidency, Trump appeared to adopt a more measured approach, likely realizing that achieving a deal with Putin would not be straightforward. The journalist noted that Putin has consistently dismissed proposals, signaling a challenging negotiation process ahead.

Grozev speculated that Trump might propose a temporary freeze on the conflict by delaying Ukraine’s NATO accession. However, Putin has publicly stated that he would not accept such membership even in the long term, be it five or twenty years. The journalist cautioned against taking Putin’s statements at face value, emphasizing that they are likely aimed at strengthening Russia’s negotiating position with Trump.

Sources cited by Grozev suggest the Kremlin could potentially accept Ukraine’s NATO membership if certain conditions are met. These include a commitment from the U.S. to withdraw its military bases from Eastern European countries and a partial lifting of economic sanctions on Russia. Such concessions, according to Grozev, are intended to alleviate pressure on Russia’s economy and satisfy the demands of influential oligarchs seeking an end to sanctions.

Grozev noted that while Trump might find these conditions acceptable, it remains uncertain whether Eastern European nations such as Poland and the Czech Republic would agree. The journalist added that Putin’s decision to consider these terms appears to have been influenced by mounting internal pressure from Russia’s elite, who are eager to restore economic stability and reduce international isolation.

Grozev concluded that the Kremlin’s strategy is likely aimed at leveraging the negotiations to secure long-term advantages while portraying itself as willing to compromise on the contentious issue of Ukraine’s NATO aspirations.