China Prevented Russia from Using Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken revealed that Russia had seriously considered using nuclear weapons in the conflict with Ukraine, but China intervened, advising against such a move. Blinken’s remarks came during an interview with the Financial Times, where he expressed significant concern over the possibility of nuclear escalation. He emphasized that even a slight increase in the probability of nuclear use is highly concerning. According to Blinken, China played a key role in preventing Russia from crossing that threshold, engaging with Russian officials and warning them not to pursue the nuclear option. Blinken also suggested that similar diplomatic efforts from China may have occurred when the U.S. alerted Beijing to Russia's plans to launch a nuclear weapon into space.

The conversation also covered the strategic setbacks faced by Russian President Vladimir Putin, noting that NATO is now stronger and better equipped than before. Blinken refuted claims that the Biden administration delayed providing weapons to Ukraine, explaining that considerations like the operational readiness of Ukrainian forces and the maintenance of advanced systems were crucial factors in the decision-making process.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian air defense forces successfully intercepted 34 Russian drones during the night of January 3-4. A total of 81 UAVs had been launched from various Russian cities, including Bryansk, Kursk, Oryol, and Primorsko-Akhtarsk. The majority of the drones were downed in several Ukrainian regions, including Poltava, Sumy, Kharkiv, and Kyiv. The attacks resulted in property damage in Chernihiv and Sumy, and several civilians were reported injured. Additionally, 47 other drones disappeared from radar before they could reach their targets.

In a broader context, analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) highlighted the Kremlin's persistent distortions of Ukrainian law and its ongoing refusal to accept the conditions necessary for a peaceful resolution to the war. Russian authorities have repeatedly misrepresented Ukraine’s Constitution, particularly regarding the prohibition on holding elections under martial law. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reaffirmed this stance, stating that elections could only be considered once the immediate threat of attack had passed and Ukraine had strengthened its military capabilities.

The ISW report also noted that Putin's demands for ending the war remain unchanged since 2021, with Russia continuing to call for Ukraine's complete capitulation, including the removal of its government and the demilitarization of the country. Zelenskyy, in contrast, outlined the conditions necessary for a "just peace," including a well-equipped Ukrainian military and substantial international security guarantees. Despite Russia’s continued military presence, particularly in the Donbas region, Ukraine remains firm in its resolve to pursue a peace settlement that upholds its sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Additionally, the ISW mentioned ongoing developments in the conflict, including Russia's advancing forces near key locations like Pokrovsk and Vuhledar. The Ukrainian government is also reportedly preparing to bolster its drone and missile capabilities to support its goal of a just peace. Furthermore, reports indicated that Russian naval forces may soon evacuate military assets from Syria to Libya, while the Russian Ministry of Defence continues to rely on ad hoc communication systems despite its support for official reconnaissance and strike unit software.

Sources:

• Financial Times
• Ukrainska Pravda
• ISW