Intense Fighting in Donetsk as Russia's Assaults Continue on Multiple Fronts

Fighting persists in the urban area of Kurakhove, Donetsk Oblast, as Russian forces concentrate their efforts on breakthrough attacks along several fronts. Over the past day, the Ukrainian military has reported 234 combat clashes. The focus of Russian assaults has been on the Lyman, Pokrovsk, and Vremivka regions, with Ukrainian troops successfully repelling numerous attacks. In Kurakhove itself, Ukrainian defenders held off 30 Russian advances, while skirmishes also occurred near Sontsivka, Stari Terny, Yasenove, Dachne, and Andriivka.

In southern Donetsk, two dangerous salients are forming due to recent Russian advances, particularly around Velyka Novosilka and Kurakhove. Ukrainian supply routes are under increasing threat in these areas.

Despite a slower pace of Russian advances in December, the situation in southern Donetsk remains tense. The most precarious situation is around the Kurakhove salient, where Russian forces are pushing from both the northern and southern flanks. The logistical situation for Ukraine here is particularly dire due to the limited supply routes. The salient is surrounded by the Vovcha and Sukhi Yaly rivers, with only one major road and bridge leading to Kurakhove. Russians are closing in on this road from the north near Ulakly and from the south near Dachne. Ukrainian sources have reported Russian drone strikes and growing "fire control" over this critical route, putting Ukrainian forces in danger of encirclement.

To the southwest of Kurakhove, another pocket is developing around Velyka Novosilka. Russian forces have advanced west of the Mokri Yaly River and are threatening the town's supply routes. The northern supply road has been cut at Novyi Komar, and the last remaining access route to Velyka Novosilka, to the west of Vremivka, is also under threat. Russian forces have recently damaged the bridges over the Mokri Yaly River, further isolating Velyka Novosilka from nearby Ukrainian-controlled areas. The town will now rely on makeshift supply methods over the river.

In summary, the threat to vital logistical routes in both Kurakhove and Velyka Novosilka presents significant challenges for Ukraine. While light troops can be resupplied by drones and infantry may attempt dangerous withdrawals across fields, a Russian advance that forces a retreat from these salients would complicate the evacuation of heavier equipment. The deteriorating weather conditions in December, combined with Russian drone surveillance, would make such withdrawals even more difficult. Ukraine faces a growing risk of encirclement in these salients, which have been developing for weeks. While past crises were averted through luck, continued reliance on this could be dangerous.

The situation is also tense on other fronts. The Kharkiv region saw seven assaults on Ukrainian positions, particularly near Hoptivka, Hlyboke, and Vysoka Yaruha, while in the Kupiansk area, Ukraine's forces repelled seven Russian attacks. On the Lyman front, Russia intensified efforts, carrying out 36 assaults across a wide range of settlements, including Zelenyi Hai and Toretsk. Further south, on the Vremivka front, Ukrainian forces destroyed a tank and two infantry fighting vehicles while repelling 44 Russian attacks. The ongoing battles across these multiple fronts underline the intensity of the conflict as Russian forces continue to face significant resistance.

Meanwhile, the Slovakian Prime Minister, Robert Fico, held a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on 22 December, largely in response to Ukraine’s stance on halting Russian gas transit through its territory. Fico cited this decision as harmful to Slovakia, particularly regarding the country's nuclear power plants, and he expressed concern over the potential loss of gas supply post-2025. Fico’s visit highlighted the escalating tensions surrounding energy transit and the financial implications for Slovakia, given that Ukraine has confirmed its unwillingness to extend the gas transit agreement with Russia beyond January 2025.

On the battlefield, Ukraine’s air defence forces reported a successful interception of 47 Russian drones out of a total of 72 launched in recent attacks. These drones targeted various regions including Kyiv, Sumy, and Odesa, though the majority were destroyed by Ukrainian forces, with no casualties reported. The ongoing Russian drone campaign, originating from the Bryansk and Oryol regions, has caused damage to both businesses and residential areas, further contributing to the ongoing strain on civilian infrastructure in Ukraine.

In an intelligence update, Ukrainian Defence Intelligence reported a significant fire at a Russian warehouse in Alabuga, which housed parts for Shahed drones, including fuselages, engines, and thermal imaging systems. The destruction of this warehouse, valued at million, marks a significant blow to Russian drone production capabilities. This incident adds to a series of reported attacks on Russian military infrastructure, underscoring the ongoing strain Russia faces in maintaining its war efforts.

As the war continues, Russia's military losses have mounted, with recent figures indicating that Russian casualties have surpassed 776,000, including over 1,900 killed or wounded in the past 24 hours alone. In addition, the Russian military has lost significant numbers of tanks, artillery systems, and combat vehicles, which further weakens its capacity to sustain offensive operations. Ukrainian forces, on the other hand, continue to inflict substantial damage on Russian equipment, further eroding Moscow's military potential.

In a related development, South Korea's military intelligence has indicated that North Korea is preparing to deploy more troops and potentially kamikaze drones to support Russia's war in Ukraine. This follows reports of North Korean soldiers already fighting alongside Russian forces, with casualties reported. The increased military cooperation between Russia and North Korea reflects a broader strategy by North Korea to gain practical combat experience and modernize its weapons systems. South Korean officials suggest that this assistance is likely to continue in 2024, contributing to the escalating military support Russia is receiving from external allies.

Finally, Russian President Vladimir Putin recently reiterated his belief that Russia should have launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine earlier than February 2022. Speaking in an interview on 22 December, Putin claimed that had he acted sooner, Russia could have avoided the protracted conflict it now faces. His remarks, echoing earlier statements made during his 19 December press conference, highlight Moscow's frustrations with the current state of the war, although they fail to address the significant resistance that Ukrainian forces have mounted.

Sources:

• Ukrainska Pravda
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• Yonhap
• ISW
• "X" @J_JHelin