Trump’s Return: Aid to Ukraine and Pressure on NATO Defense Budgets

Donald Trump is expected to continue providing military assistance to Ukraine during his second term, while pushing for NATO allies to significantly increase their defense spending, the Financial Times reports. The plan involves NATO member states doubling their defense expenditure to 5% of GDP, alongside offering European Union countries more favorable trade terms with the United States.

Sources close to Trump's foreign policy team revealed that, while maintaining military aid to Ukraine, Trump will also aim to broker an end to hostilities between Ukraine and Russia. In discussions held in December with senior European officials, his team outlined plans to strengthen the United States’ policy toward Europe and Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Despite alarming European leaders during the campaign with his remarks about potentially cutting off aid to Ukraine and compelling NATO members to increase their defense spendingTrump’s Return: Aid to Ukraine and Pressure on NATO Defense Budgets or risk reduced US support, Trump’s administration has signaled its commitment to assisting Ukraine.

During recent meetings with NATO allies, it was conveyed that Trump would seek to raise the alliance's spending target from the current 2% of GDP to 5%. However, some sources suggested that he may settle for 3.5% and tie this increase to improved trade agreements between the United States and Europe. NATO leaders are already deliberating an increase to at least 3% ahead of a summit scheduled for June in The Hague. This decision, however, presents financial challenges for many European governments.

The United States currently spends approximately 3.1% of its GDP on defense, with Trump aiming to match or exceed the 3.4% reached during his previous administration. This proposal comes as NATO continues to expand its commitment, with only 23 of its 32 members currently meeting the existing 2% target.

Key European partners, including Germany, France, Britain, Italy, and Poland, have been engaged in discussions about adjusting their defense policies to accommodate Trump’s return to office. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky were also involved in the talks. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, following a phone call with Trump during an EU summit, expressed confidence that the United States and Europe would remain steadfast in supporting Ukraine. Senior British security officials have also traveled to Washington to understand the details of Trump’s strategy.

Trump, while maintaining his belief that Ukraine should not join NATO, has expressed a desire for a swift resolution to the conflict. He reportedly sees continued arms supplies to Ukraine post-ceasefire as a means to achieve a stable peace, aligned with his “peace through strength” philosophy.

Following a series of meetings with NATO and EU leaders in Brussels, Zelensky stressed that European commitments alone would be insufficient without the involvement of the United States. The Ukrainian president underlined the importance of US support for sustaining Ukraine's defense capabilities in the face of ongoing threats.

Source: Financial Times (FT)