EU Defense Commissioner Warns Russia Could Target EU Country if Ukraine Support Falters

European Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius warned that if the West fails to provide sufficient military support to Ukraine, Russia could seize the opportunity to target an EU country. Speaking before the European Parliament’s Subcommittee on Security and Defense in Brussels, Kubilius emphasized the importance of understanding the nature of potential threats and preparing for possible Russian aggression against EU and NATO nations. Although he did not specify which country could be at risk, his comments underscored the necessity for readiness in facing such threats.

Kubilius highlighted that in the short term, Russia poses the most significant threat, while in the long term, China remains a growing concern, with the U.S. increasingly focusing its efforts on the Indo-Pacific region. As a result, the American military presence in Europe is unlikely to remain at its current scale. He also called for a shift in attitude regarding the development of European defense capabilities.

NATO's defense plans include increasing its military assets in Europe, with provisions for 49 additional brigades, 1,500 tanks, 1,000 artillery units, and thousands of vehicles. However, Kubilius noted that it remains to be seen whether European defense industries can meet these demands before 2030. The EU's new multi-annual budget, set to provide about 500 billion euros over the next decade, is expected to allocate more funds for defense.

Kubilius also expressed concern that the EU is currently losing the verbal battle with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has been successful in promoting the narrative that Ukraine cannot win the war and must negotiate with Russia on its terms.

Meanwhile, in Malta, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov are set to meet at the OSCE forum. Ukraine will be the primary topic of discussion, with the meeting also expected to formally approve agreements on the appointment of senior officials within the organization. This year’s forum is overshadowed by the impending inauguration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, who has proposed a controversial plan for ending the war in Ukraine, which includes concessions to Russia.

The OSCE, an organization originally designed for East-West communication during the Cold War, has faced significant challenges since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Russia has been using its veto power to block key decisions, further straining the organization. However, this year, Armenia and Azerbaijan, rather than Russia, have been the primary obstacles to agreeing on the OSCE budget due to their ongoing conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh.

In terms of leadership changes, an agreement has been reached to appoint Feridun Sinirlioglu, Turkey's former foreign minister, as the OSCE Secretary-General. The next rotating chairman of the OSCE, on the occasion of the 50th anniversary of the Helsinki Final Act, will be Finland.

Sources:

• Reuters
• European Parliament