Syria's Rebel Offensive Gains Momentum as Iran, Russia, and Hezbollah Struggle

Rebels in Syria have continued their swift advance, capturing key areas, including much of Aleppo in the north and making significant gains in the south. The offensive is led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an Islamist group that has emerged as the most significant opposition force to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in over a decade. Government forces have launched counterattacks, including airstrikes on rebel positions, but appear to be regrouping. HTS's offensive began after a ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel in Lebanon, which left Assad’s key allies, Iran and Hezbollah, distracted and weakened by conflicts elsewhere.

The rebel groups quickly gained control of several strategic areas, including Saadallah Al-Jabri Square, government buildings, and the iconic Aleppo Citadel. They also extended their influence to surrounding areas in the Idlib countryside. As of December 1, the situation in Aleppo represents a major shift, as it is no longer under government control for the first time since the start of Syria’s conflict. The advances have surprised many, including Syria’s allies, and are seen as the result of the weakening of the regime's main supporters—Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah—who have been preoccupied with other regional conflicts.

The humanitarian situation in the region is dire. The United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) has halted its aid operations in Gaza after multiple convoys carrying food and supplies were attacked. This comes amid the ongoing war in Gaza, which has caused massive casualties, including over 44,000 deaths in Gaza alone. The war’s impact extends beyond Syria, as Lebanon has also seen casualties, with over 3,900 people killed, according to Lebanon’s health ministry. The U.S. National Security Adviser, Jake Sullivan, noted that the shifting dynamics in Syria are largely due to the weakened position of the Assad regime’s backers. He also commented that the rebel advances in Aleppo were an attempt to capitalize on the vulnerability of Iran, Hezbollah, and Russia, who are all involved in various other conflicts across the region.

The situation remains fluid, with U.S.-backed Syrian opposition forces in the east also ramping up operations, targeting Iranian-backed groups in Deir Ez-Zor province. Additionally, Russian military personnel and diplomats have been evacuating from cities like Damascus, as opposition forces close in. The escalation has led to Iranian-backed Iraqi militias deploying to support the Syrian government in its counteroffensive against the insurgents, particularly in Aleppo. Despite these efforts, Syrian airstrikes continue, and the violence has exacerbated the refugee crisis, with many fleeing the conflict-stricken areas of Syria, including Kurdish-led regions now facing Turkish-backed rebel advances.

Background:

The background to these developments lies in the ongoing Syrian civil war, which began in 2011 as protests against President Bashar al-Assad’s government evolved into a broader conflict involving numerous international actors. Iran and Russia have long been Assad’s primary military and political backers, providing troops, air support, and logistical assistance. On the other hand, opposition groups have received support from various countries, including the United States, which has backed Kurdish-led factions and some rebel groups. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a group formerly affiliated with al-Qaeda, has been a key player in the opposition, particularly in the northwest region of Syria. Its latest advances come at a time when both Iran and Russia are distracted by other regional priorities, including Russia’s involvement in the war in Ukraine and Iran’s ongoing support for militias in Iraq and Lebanon.