Coalition Challenges Push Bulgaria Toward Potential April Elections

In Bulgaria, the political climate remains tense as parties struggle to form a stable coalition following parliamentary elections. The uncertainty has persisted, with significant divisions between key political groups such as GERB, "We Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria" (WCC-DB), and the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP). This stalemate reflects deeper systemic challenges in Bulgaria's governance, with frequent elections and fragile coalitions becoming a recurring pattern in recent years.

In an interview with BNR, sociologist Kolyo Kolev from the Mediana agency predicts that new elections are likely to occur in early April. He expressed skepticism about the possibility of a coalition between WCC-DB, GERB, and BSP, describing it as increasingly unlikely due to internal contradictions that would limit such a government’s longevity to six months or a year. Kolev noted that political parties seem to be stalling, engaging in what he described as a “game of passing the blame,” where no party wants to take full responsibility for the current deadlock. He also criticized WCC-DB for adopting a public stance of willingness to govern while, in reality, avoiding concrete commitments to coalition-building.

According to Kolev, WCC-DB's reluctance to enter into a coalition with GERB stems from concerns about potential image damage. He likened their actions to a ritualistic denial of association with GERB, driven by the fear that collaboration could alienate their voter base. Kolev also doubted that a resolution would emerge with the proposed election of Gen. Atanas Atanasov as Speaker of the Parliament, describing the situation as a continuation of political gamesmanship. He remarked that GERB leader Boyko Borissov’s insistence on the need for a Speaker reflects his desire to delay early elections and push for joint governance.

The Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) also faces internal challenges, with a leadership struggle reportedly influencing their stance in the ongoing coalition talks. Kolev observed that BSP’s consistent nomination of Natalia Kiselova for Speaker reflects a decline in the party’s political influence. He also noted that the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS), led by Delyan Peevski, appears supportive of new elections, as they have benefited from the current government setup.

In a separate development, Prof. Yanaki Stoilov, a constitutional judge, announced that preparations are underway for a recount of ballots from over 2,200 polling stations, following a ruling by the Constitutional Court. Stoilov explained that experts would review all election materials, including invalid ballots, to ensure their compliance with legal requirements. The recount, expected to be completed by January 10, aims to address discrepancies, particularly in polling stations where video surveillance was absent. However, Stoilov acknowledged that the scope of the recount’s impact on election results remains uncertain.

Despite the lack of a functioning parliament, Stoilov pointed out that certain administrative tasks, such as the registration of parliamentary groups, could proceed. However, he questioned whether the president would initiate consultations or whether they would yield meaningful results, given the ongoing political impasse.

Meanwhile, MP Yavor Bozhankov addressed recent calls for his resignation from WCC-DB leaders Kiril Petkov and Lena Borislavova. He stated that he would step down only if formally requested by the parliamentary group and emphasized his commitment to maintaining his seat until then. Bozhankov attributed the calls for his resignation to the same principles for which he was initially supported, such as his votes against the return of paper ballots and in favor of Ukrainian aid. He reiterated his stance that the election of the Speaker of Parliament has broader implications, potentially influencing the formation of an interim government.

Bozhankov expressed concerns over certain parliamentary candidates and criticized President Rumen Radev’s choices for caretaker governments, which he claimed were influenced by the "There Is Such a People" (TISP) party. He also raised doubts about the suitability of Silvi Kirilov, a candidate for Speaker, as a potential interim prime minister. Bozhankov dismissed suggestions that he might form a new political party, stressing the need to avoid further fragmentation within Bulgaria’s democratic political sphere.