Russia Rules Out Frontline Freeze, Demands Ukraine's Surrender

Russia has reinforced its stance against freezing the current frontline in Ukraine or reaching a compromise, insisting on Ukraine’s complete surrender. Sergei Naryshkin, head of Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service, stated that while Moscow is allegedly open to negotiations, it will not entertain a freeze of hostilities or the establishment of demilitarized zones. He emphasized that peace can only be achieved by addressing the reasons that, according to Russia, justified its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggest that Russia is preparing for further escalations, particularly in southeastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. This area, although not part of the territories Russia illegally annexed, holds strategic significance for Moscow’s efforts to fully occupy Donetsk Oblast. ISW notes that Russia's recent territorial gains, while slower than those early in the war, have accelerated compared to the pace observed throughout 2023 and earlier in 2024.

Amid the ongoing conflict, the Russian military continues to increase its use of drones to target Ukraine's energy infrastructure, including a record 188-drone assault on the night of November 25-26. The strategy involves deploying decoy drones to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses. In addition, Russian forces have faced setbacks, with Ukrainian troops reclaiming positions near Kreminna, while Russian units advanced near Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Velyka Novosilka. Despite these developments, reports of Russian war crimes, including the execution of Ukrainian prisoners of war, persist.

In parallel, the U.S. government has reinforced its commitment to supporting Ukraine. President Joe Biden has requested Congress to allocate an additional 24 billion dollars in aid, including 8 billion for weapons procurement and billion to replenish U.S. military stockpiles. This proposal, however, has sparked criticism among some Republican lawmakers. Senator Mike Lee voiced opposition to the aid, linking it to broader political disagreements. The Biden administration also recently canceled approximately 4.65 billion of Ukraine's economic aid debt.

Ukraine’s recent use of U.S.-supplied ATACMS missiles has been pivotal in targeting Russian military installations, including a significant strike in Russia’s Kursk region. The attack reportedly damaged an S-400 air defense system and a radar installation, with casualties reported. Russia’s Defense Ministry acknowledged the strike and vowed retaliation, emphasizing that three of the five incoming missiles were intercepted. Ukrainian forces also targeted the Khalino air base in the same region, though the resulting damage was described as minimal.

Background:

The escalating hostilities follow a series of high-profile attacks, including Ukraine’s strikes against Russian energy and military assets. The war’s toll on Russian forces has been severe, with estimated combat losses exceeding 735,000 personnel, alongside substantial equipment losses, including tanks, armored vehicles, and aircraft.

This conflict traces its roots to Russia's illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014 and subsequent support for separatist movements in eastern Ukraine. Tensions escalated into a full-scale invasion in February 2022, when Russia aimed to overthrow Ukraine's government and annex more territory. International condemnation and sanctions followed, with Western countries providing Ukraine with military and economic support. Despite significant setbacks, Russia continues to pursue territorial ambitions, while Ukraine resists amid global appeals for a resolution.

Sources:

• ISW
• Ukrainska Pravda
• New York Post
• General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Facebook
• BBC