Russia's Strategy Shifts to Winter Urban Warfare Amid Drone and Armored Vehicle Challenges

Experts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) predict that Russian forces are likely to focus on capturing Ukrainian cities during the winter of 2024-2025, shifting their strategy toward urban combat. This shift is seen as a response to the Ukrainian advantage in drones and the limitations of Russia's armored vehicles. The ISW notes that the upcoming winter battles could involve more concentrated fighting in populated areas, a shift from open-field combat.

In a recent interview with the Russian-language RTVI channel, Mikhail Zvinchuk, a prominent figure with close Kremlin ties, stated that Russian forces plan to concentrate on towns like Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove this winter. He mentioned that Russian forces are preparing for an assault on Pokrovsk, with an approach from the south and southeast, following their capture of nearby Selydove. Zvinchuk’s insights are considered significant, as he may have access to privileged information regarding Russia's military objectives.

The ISW has previously highlighted the strategic importance of key Ukrainian cities such as Kupiansk and Chasiv Yar. Capturing these locations could reshape the frontlines, weakening Ukraine's defensive positions. However, while these advances put pressure on Ukrainian defenses, they do not present an immediate threat to the overall stability of the Ukrainian front.

Zvinchuk also discussed Russia's plans to enhance its military capabilities, especially its drone warfare capabilities, acknowledging the growing importance of drones in winter warfare. He pointed out that while Russia has an artillery advantage, Ukrainian drones have hindered their ability to make significant advances. Zvinchuk suggested that well-trained and well-equipped Russian forces might be able to counter Ukrainian drone operations more effectively.

The ISW has observed Russia’s ongoing efforts to centralize control over its informal drone units, which may increase in importance as the winter conflict progresses. Russian forces are also adapting to Ukraine's drone dominance, which has posed challenges for their mechanized operations, slowing their advance in rural areas.

With urban warfare in mind, Russian military strategy may increasingly rely on infantry-led combat in cities. Multi-story buildings provide cover from Ukrainian drones, and urban combat reduces the vulnerabilities of Russian armored vehicles, which are more susceptible to prolonged rural operations. This shift in tactics could play a significant role in the upcoming winter offensive.

In other developments, Russian forces continued their bombardment of Ukraine, including a missile strike on the city of Sumy on November 17. The attack resulted in the deaths of 11 people, including two children, and left more than 50 others injured. Ukrainian authorities have reported that the toll from this attack continues to rise, further underscoring the ongoing danger posed by Russian strikes on Ukrainian territory.

Meanwhile, there were reports from Le Figaro suggesting that France and the UK had authorized Ukraine to strike deep into Russian territory using long-range SCALP/Storm Shadow missiles. However, the report was later amended, with a revised version indicating that the debate over such strikes had been ongoing and that French President Emmanuel Macron had voiced support for this action earlier in 2024. These long-range missiles, developed by the UK and France, are designed to hit stationary, well-protected targets like bunkers, even in challenging weather conditions.

This shift in the approach to long-range strikes follows a similar move by the United States. President Joe Biden authorized Ukrainian forces to use American ATACMS missiles against Russian targets, with reports indicating that Ukraine may use these missiles in the coming days to strike targets in Russian-controlled areas, particularly in Kursk Oblast.

Despite the approval of these long-range strike capabilities, the French and British governments had been more cautious about allowing their missiles to be used against Russian territory until the US decision to provide ATACMS missiles was made. This development marks a significant evolution in Ukraine's strike capabilities as it continues to target Russian military infrastructure.