Trump’s Return: Experts Predict Challenges for Bulgaria and Europe

The election of Donald Trump as the next US president is expected to bring notable changes, with potential consequences for Bulgaria, according to Yordan Bozhilov, chairman of the Sofia Security Forum. Speaking on BNT alongside Dimitar Gardev, chairman of the Foreign Policy Committee in Bulgaria’s 46th National Assembly, Bozhilov highlighted several areas of impact. Some of the policies may indirectly influence Bulgaria through shifts in America's global positioning, while others could more directly affect the EU and individual countries. He noted that NATO and regional security would likely be important areas to watch, and even Bulgarian-American relations could see some adjustments. However, Bozhilov emphasized that much of Trump's campaign messaging was directed internally, leaving specifics on international policies largely unknown.

Dimitar Gardev noted the difficulty Democrats faced in persuading voters that their approach had yielded success, pointing out that Trump managed to defeat two candidates in a single election cycle. He also mentioned the potential shift from Joe Biden to Kamala Harris as a significant development, and argued that America appears to desire a leader promising substantial change.

Experts on Nova TV also weighed in on Trump's election, analyzing its potential impact on Europe and Bulgaria. Sociologist Andrey Raichev, economist Evgeni Kanev, and international security expert Ivaylo Ivanov shared their perspectives. Kanev expressed pessimism about Trump’s presidency for Europe, suggesting it could lead to high tariffs that would impact sectors such as the auto industry, where Germany—and indirectly Bulgaria through its manufacturing ties—is heavily invested. He expressed concern about Trump’s stance on the Ukraine conflict, arguing that it could exacerbate European security concerns, even if a temporary peace is reached.

Raichev reflected on Trump’s initial electoral loss, attributing it largely to the COVID-19 pandemic. He suggested that the pandemic derailed a path that might otherwise have led to Trump’s continued leadership, which was shaped by what he described as a "new normal." Europe, he argued, now faces a need to move beyond issues he views as distractions, such as excessive focus on political correctness and cultural debates, suggesting that Americans have chosen Trump to restore a more traditional form of stability.

Ivanov added that Europe is not adequately prepared to manage its defense independently, emphasizing that, in his view, the Biden administration had not made enough progress in this area. With Trump back in office, Ivanov believes NATO may be used as a tool through which the US could assert more direct influence over Europe’s policies.